Thought I'd make a thread about this since it's probably one of the most interesting matchups of the year. I think it's going to play out like Froch vs. Dirrell, except he'll obv get the decision. I think he's smart enough (as seen earlier) to not exchange with a power puncher and is just going to completely outpoint Abraham (him losing early rounds as seen vs, Taylor/Miranda won't help either). Abe could catch Andre but that's his only path to victory imo, to hurt him bad at some point...

What are your thoughts on this?

Also found a super sick line on bwin of 3.2, never placed a bet there before but just put €500 and it didn't go down, so lots of arb opportunities if anyone wants it. Don't know if/how much vig bwin charges (anyone know?) but the payout said €1600...

*PS: Fight is in the U.S. as well so no German shadyness.

I think Abraham is an excellent fighter. I like the look of dirrell although at times was negative against Froch. I happen to think Abra's KO of Miranda was very impressive - Miranda is the key to form I feel as he has fought everyone . But I don't see how if Dirrell couldn't beat Froch (without the deducting it would have been closer obv but I couldn't decide at the time), he is going to beat the real deal. I'm not a fan of froch and therefore for me the form doesn't stand up.

Before the injury to Ward, I had it Ward>Abraham>Kessler>Froch/Dirrell/Green

As a sidenote, who was the last 'holder', you know the boxer who just grabs a hold and spoils constantly who is considered great in the modern era?

dirrell by decision at +245 seems like the play to me. i see a lot of value when i think about in terms of skill and style wise. will only place 2u on it because i thought dirrells fight with froch would of ended up differently if dirrell wouldnt have resorted to excessive holding.

dirrelss going to have to keep his distance with abraham imo. if he feels the heat hes going to have to run away not clinch like he did with froch. if he clinches and then seperates i think hes at risk of getting hit with power that can go through gloves.

if he keeps his distance and uses his boxing he should win a decision barring getting caught or bumrushed.

the main thing in this fight is gonna be abrahams inability to get off. as long as dirrell doesnt get hit when he does explode he should be alright.

but i still have my doubts about dirrell especially how his fight with froch would of looked and turned out he kept the holding to a minimum.

Best I see for Dirrell dec. is 12/5 (3.4), is the +245 you hit still up? Anyway I wouldn't be comfortable with betting it for such a small difference tho (it is 3.25 at bwin lols).

I wanted to initially make another bet if the first was accepted on b, but now I'm starting to have second thoughts too with everyone saying Abe will catch him. And you never know with those wild ass punches, and Dirrell moving backwards.

But still homefield advantage, Dirrell's ability to avoid getting hit + height and reach, will play big factors.

Also, anyone know if bwin charges vig? (too lazy to look at faq or w.e.)

i got dirrell by decision early on at +250 on 5dimes. its now +210. i dont know bwin as im in the states, im assuming its a euro book.

i was thinking about adding to my 2u bet but decided not too. looking back on the dirrell/froch fight i saw tons of holes and opportunites that can lead to dirrell getting caught. highlight video that shows imo more than enough opportunities for dirrell to get caught.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fztqCbOUiTY

if dirrell clinches with abraham like he did with froch, it wont be far fetched to see abraham exploding on dirrell and catching him. if he decides to "run" hes gonna be moving back a lot. if he moves back as frequently as he clinched with froch it wont take abraham long to time him and knock him out.

i dont think its a terrible idea to add more on dirrell especially at 3.2.

abrahams power. abrahams wild punches cant definitely catch something.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJtIe_djXUQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3XwW...eature=related

Hmm... actually upon looking at a bit of that first highlight it seems that Dirrell can take some punches as well (mainly the shots Froch got in while he was complaining). Froch has power, albeit overrated, and Dirrell although obv always looking to not get hit, never seemed to lose his head and seemed to always do the most strategically safe thing. I agree though, it is better to circle around Abraham than clinch with him (or keep it to a minimum) because that will be his best chance to catch him. I wonder though what Abraham will do if Dirrell proves to be able to absorb power punches?

I think watching that might've convinced me to add more instead of fearing Abraham's power lols. The line is too good to pass up imo... bwin is also Austrian so it should be little suprise they have the best line available, much like uk bookies when betting against uk fighters.

froch didnt land enough or flush enough to say dirrell took the punches well. froch does have power but not one punch knockout power like abraham.

dirrell slides with the shots very well kind of like mayweather but he doesnt actually absorb them. and he wont against abraham.

dirrell cant strictly circle him, hes going to have to mix it up to not become predictable. which means fighting a more riskier fight than he would like. dirrell knows this " I am going to box, but I am also going to make him fight me. He is going to see the best of both worlds. He is going to get the full package and get me at my best. I don't feel like he is going to be able to adapt to what i offer and throw at him." at a presser yesterday. hes going to try to keep abraham guessing and confused so abraham cant find his rhythm and get off. if abraham "adapts" to what dirrell throws at him, then abraham will simply time him and catch him.

imo dirrell is going to have to fight using different tactics. moving in and out, circling, clinching, not boxing too much but not too little as he said. hes gonna be on his toes the whole fight. hes not gonna figure him out and just cruise from there.

dirrell has the tools no doubt, but for him to execute it for 12 rnds is a different story. he showed calmness and good ring IQ against froch but the clinching helped a lot imo something he'll do at a higher risk against abraham.

i see a lot of value too, but i just cant add more. if you can then do it. its gonna be a sweat no doubt.

Abraham fights nothing like Froch and Froch is the guy who was seconds away from losing to a washed up JT . Dirrell has been down in his career and he seems to get scared when he eats a somewhat hard punch he is always trying to run away . Abraham is unbeaten for a reason http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7DX9rcSKF4 and after the first 5-6 rounds Dirrell will be in danger of getting rocked at any point . I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to grab Abraham and gets starched with an uppercut and finished .

Pretty funny how bwin has Dirrell at 3.20 to win and 5dimes only 3.10 to win by decision , talk about not rating Dirrell's power .

^^^agreed. There is a time to not respect an unbeaten champ's record and there are time to predict a future great. Abraham could be such a fighter but Dirrell has been a let-down. Abraham KO for me <rnd 6.

Passion, good write-ups. Btw, bwin is a large Central European book who restrict you hard if you beat them.

Andre Dirrell wins the fight. I saw him and his entourage driving down my street in a landrover with the license plate "matrix." He looked ready.

Last night dirrell was 3.5 at 5 dimes to win by dec. I wouldnt read into these types of cross ocean book differences. I have seen plenty of arbable lines for boxing for people with uk/us accounts. Bhop started at -285 vs rjj in us; rjj started at +350 in uk

I am just saying it's weird how just straight Dirrell bet is higher than Dirrell by decision .
Like Froch stated in his interview it's most likely either AA by brutal KO or Dirrell boring decision .

Let's not pretend Abraham was outworking Taylor by any means, we saw him have problems vs. him and if that fight was in that states and without the point deduction it would've been a coin toss until the KO. Taylor also had like no footwork at all in that fight.

Didn't know Dirrell was dropped but that fight was 4 years ago and that punch caught him completely open on the button when he was throwing.

I wonder if Abraham's clearly losing at the start of 11th round, how he's going to come out for the next 2? Throwing even wilder punches or complete bum rush?

I also like Dirrell as a live dog here. Another thing to note is that when he let his hands go, he dominated Froch. Dirrell is still relatively inexperienced as a pro, so it's possible he will show great improvement in this fight.

1. Abraham is coming all the way from Europe, and only arrived about a week before the fight

2. the three judges are all from Michigan

3. Abraham doesn't throw many punches and tends to give away rounds, even to lesser competition such a shop worn, blown up JT

4. Abraham doesn't have much hand speed

5. Abraham has one fight at a catchweight of 166 (Miranda) and one fight at 168 (blown up, shopworn middleweight JT). Dirrell has always been a super middleweight.

Like most undefeated fighters with highlight reel KO power, Abraham seems a lot more "unbeatable" than he actually is.

Although I think taking Dirrell at +170 here is +EV, what I really like is the over. More specifically, I love the "not Abraham by stoppage" prop. Many experts are picking Abraham by stoppage, which is confusing to me. I also don't buy into the idea that if Abraham does win, it will be by KO. I can definitely see him winning a decision without even dropping Dirrell at any point. I really think his chance for getting a stoppage is being overblown. Especially if Dirrell regresses to fighting like a scared rabbit (see his fight vs Curtis Stevens), this fight is going to the cards.

After long discussions, Team Sauerland, Gary Shaw and the Michigan Boxing Commission have agreed on officials. The referee will be Laurence Cole (Texas). Judges are Anek Hontoncan (Thailand), Guido Cavalleri (Italy) and Frank Garza (Michigan). The Abraham camp had objected to the use of local officials, however, the well respected Garza was deemed acceptable.

Thanks. I had seen that Abraham's camp was crying about 3 Mich judges AND a Mich ref, but didn't see this update.

Clicky


[CLIFF NOTES: BE CAREFULL DEALING WITH BWIN]

I just want to make a statement regarding the orginal posters reference to 3.2


I opened an account at bwin given the 11/5 at bwin on the 24th or 25th this month, days ago, and placed a £300 wager there with my hard earned legal money in life, it was accepted as was my account creation, there is no reason no to, i am a legitimate 34 year old IT professional that enjoys sports, there is no reason for my custom to be turned away.

However, one day after I placed my £300 bet, I checked my hotmail account and found that my deposit to bwin had been refunded with the detail "refund requested", whats more my account was disabled, permanently with no way to unlock it.

As you can imagine I contacted bwin, very interested in what was going on.

I dont think I am being out of line providing the text of the conversation.


24 March 2010
Your registration with bwin was successful! All you have to do now is activate your account:

Click on the respective button below or copy the following link and paste it into your browser's address bar:

https://home.bwin.com/default.aspx?xyz

Your bwin account will be activated shortly.

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Welcome to bwin!
With your user ID "xyz" and password you can take advantage of bwin's entire product range, including Sports betting, Casino, Poker, Games and Lottery.
You just can't wait to place your first bet? Then use our secure and convenient online payment options* – go to your betting account and click on "In/Outpayments":
Credit Cards: VISA/VISA Electron, MasterCard, DINERS CARD
Wallet: NETeller, moneybookers, Cactus
Naturally, you can also credit money to your bwin account via bank transfer. You will find more information on all the money depositing options we offer in our Help section.
Your data is in safe hands with bwin: state-of-the-art encryption technology and multiple firewalls warrant best possible security!
Of course, our Support Team is available for any questions you may have.
E-mail: support.en@bwin.com
If you have forgotten your password, you can apply for a new one online.
Good Luck
Your bwin team

-

At this stage I placed my bet, I used paypal as a credit card had a surcharge of like 3%.

a day later refund issued and no emails or phone call, just totally out of line, so I sent an email and web form email.


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25 March 2010
I have just sent a support email via your web page as you have both cancel my bet refunded me my money and disabled my account.

what was the point of me giving you my work mobile number if you fail to even contact me before doing such actions, if I was away form my email I would have had no knowledge of what you have done.

Whats going on, call me with in the next hour or email me please,

----


Thank you for your e-mail.


Your account has been closed for security reasons and will not be re-opened.

Below please find the relevant extract from our terms and conditions. You can also find these on the help pages of our homepage under "Legal Matters / General Terms and Conditions / General Terms / Liability/data processing" or under the following link:

https://help.bwin.com/General/Legal/...aspx#liability
**************************
[...]

The company reserves the right to exclude users from participating in any of the games of bwin International Ltd. at its discretion.

[...]
**************************

Further to the above, your attempted deposit via PayPal from 24.03.10 was cancelled.


Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further queries.

Kind regards,

Your bwin customer service team

bwin acknowledges its commitment to responsible gaming




----25 March 2010
Im sorry I dont accept this I require you to call me and explain this to me, if you could only accept cleared funds or credit card or some other stupilation then the onus is on you to explain that to me, Please note if you do not contact me I will have no other recourse than to contact who ever is responceable for governing your conduct, I am a legitate 34 year old computer engineer and I dont take my time being wasted lightly, you have advertised odds as a professional bookmarking outfit, you are men tto be reputable and worthly of the publics trust.

If you require a credit card only on the first wager then that is for you to explain to me via your system.

I want and deserve some form of explination here, what kind of business are you running?


I do not wish to excalate this issue but I am will if required, please forward on to me the contact details of your senior management responceable for customer complaints and the contact details for partys responceable for your licensing in your country or state.

Ive done nothing wrong, you need to explain yourselfs.


------
Same answer as before, we dont have to tell you etc.

--

I have NOW made an account at sportingbet which had the fight at 21/10.[checked 26th March 20:00gmt @ 2/1]

They dont seem to have any problem with the process of advertising odds, opening new accounts, and accept clean honest money.

If any one at bwin can explain to me why you did that to me, you have my records, please contact me or post here, how am I a security threat to bwin, the reverse is true you are a security threat to US the public.

Way to go bwin, honest people dont win there imo.

Im sure my pasting the image of the bet at the above link had some thing to do with it, its the only thing I can think of.


Its not even like its 300k or 30k usd or uk, its a weekend sports flutter £300 and its a risky bet as well, AA could deal with AD, it could go either way really although I fancy AD, I think he will be fit and able to deal with the pressure.


Unless the above issue is resolved I would stay away from Bwin, I dont know if they are a totally legit operation and how lucky I was to even get the refund.

Dont deposit at bwin, and if you do deposit there dont post your bet information any were, how this is an issue is behond my comprehension

taking a closer look at the odds i changed my mind. i think its better to take a free roll as im having doubts about dirrell. instead of winning small no matter what happens i rather win a little bit more if abraham wins and lose nothing if dirrell wins.

2u to win 5u.......dirrell by decision +255
5u to win 7.7u.....abraham inside distance +151

only way i lose here is if abraham wins a decision or dirrell wins inside distance.

That sucks buddha, however nothing of the sort happend to me (yet) and I added another 300€ on Dirrell. However I didn't just open this accnt for this bet, I played some pokars on the bwin skin before and I deposited thru mb. Maybe they signaled you out cause you deposited with paypal (I didn't even know you could, thought they still had that anti gambling policy?) which might've raised some flags on their side? Hopefully nothing shady happens to me, like cancelling my bet after Dirrell wins the first 5 rounds lol...

Really weird tho, that they don't even answer your questions or talk to you abut this. Hope you get it solved.

Hey winners aren't quitters
What do you think are the chances Abraham wins a decision?

I like the over on this one as well. I posted my thoughts on another message board.

I really like the write up. I think there is a chance that Dirrell wins an impressive and wholly legitimate UD, but other than that we seem to agree. I even think there is a chance Dirrell can win by stoppage, which is why I prefer the "NOT Abraham by stoppage prop" to the OVER. In other words, I don't think it is likely for Dirrell to get a KO, I just think it is more likely than the market thinks. And of course, the market is saying that a stoppage win by Dirrell is not at all likely.

The one thing I am more worried about (concerning the under) is the way Dirrell's legs were so rubbery against Froch in the early to middle rounds. It's pretty sad when a fighter's legs look weak and unsteady in round 4, and not from ever being hit, but from fatigue. I hope he doesn't fold under the pressure of Abraham constantly being in his face, because AA is going to just keep coming forward behind his high guard. Dirrell has come out and said that he was negatively effected by Froch's rough tactics and pressure. He can't get anxious or overly fatigued against AA.

That's my only worry - how weak his legs looked at times in the Froch fight, despite almost never being hit cleanly. It's not enough to stop me from liking the bet though.

Clicky


Dont know why, but I get the feeling this is not going to be a boring fight, brutal more like.


I think this is a must watch boxing event.

Wheeeee can't wait.

Dirrell by kayo imo!

I'm very excited.
Im rooting for Abraham.
Abraham gets K.Oed is very unlikely. This guy is a beast!
Last 7-8 fights from Abraham he was playing with his opponents.

That's one of the cheapest shot you can make... I had lot of fun sweating this and that was just a lame ass end. I hope Abraham gets a pt taken off or something for this. That very well could've ended Dirrell's career, long momentum filled shot straight on the button when he was down. Dirrell didn't look good after he got up either.

Otherwise boxing clinic, same thing as Ward vs. Kessler... Dirrell proved to be able to absorb some shots as well without losing his head as vs. Froch.

And Abraham still gives attitude at the end wtf?