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Am I overlooking something? Am I overlooking something?

01-01-2010 , 03:09 PM
Over the last year I have bet the "soft" side of arbs thinking I had a profitable strategy. It was at a few books but mostly at SIA. I made 850 bets mostly at odds of -110 where pinnacle showed the opposite side at +111 or better. My avg bet size was 220 and I am now down 8200.

The site is slow to move their odds and I feel logically it should be profitable. My results are making me reconsider that I might be missing something. Can this really be variance?

Ive stopped sb a couple months ago but Id like to get back into it. I'm baffled by this so any help is appreciated.
Am I overlooking something? Quote
01-01-2010 , 03:10 PM
Yes.
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01-01-2010 , 03:11 PM
can i have a clue?
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01-01-2010 , 03:19 PM
Can this really be variance?

Yes.
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01-01-2010 , 04:49 PM
Aren`t arbs suppose to make you money irregardless of the result of the match, because of the difference between the odds at different bookmakers or am I thinking of something else?
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01-01-2010 , 04:56 PM
you missed the part where he said he's taking the soft side

he's just betting bad numbers relative to pinnacles at certain books assuming pinnacle is correct
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01-01-2010 , 05:06 PM
Oh, tx for the explanation.
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01-01-2010 , 05:23 PM
Assuming 850 games at $220 to win $200, with a win rate of 53%*

Your mean winnings would be +$2210 but the Stdev is over $6000. I have you down $8220 (or more) 4% of the time after 850 games.


*Hard to say if 53% is a good guess at your average win rate. I could see arguments for it being higher or lower.
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01-01-2010 , 05:29 PM
SD should be larger is there is derivation from the avg bet size at any point, but yeah... Its a totally believable issue.
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01-01-2010 , 06:34 PM
betting is a fk.
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01-01-2010 , 07:27 PM
ok thanks for responses. I'll prob be throwing some more money at this.
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01-01-2010 , 08:12 PM
I only recently hit their win threshold after years of pounding my head against ******ed lines. SIA runs good.
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01-02-2010 , 01:17 PM
Yep, same here. They do seem to run hotter than they should.

Although I guess a lot of the time being on big dogs makes the running cold seem worse than it is.
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01-03-2010 , 04:24 AM
I thought their off markets #s were indicative of their lean by giving their square action terribad lines?
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01-03-2010 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
Yep, same here. They do seem to run hotter than they should.

Although I guess a lot of the time being on big dogs makes the running cold seem worse than it is.
Same. Was in the red there for probably a good 3 years. Just got back into the black by running hotter than hell there the past few months.

Like others have said, they seem to run goot.
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01-03-2010 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny_B
Like others have said, they seem to run goot.
Just curious, when you guys do this, do you keep track of the closing lines? Is it possible you are running bad against the 'sharp line' at the time you bet the soft side, but not beating the closing line?
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01-04-2010 , 02:23 PM
With all your bets as a whole, it is basically impossible to not beat the closing line.
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01-05-2010 , 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by B00T
With all your bets as a whole, it is basically impossible to not beat the closing line.

Probably, but if this many people are auto-betting everywhere else when a Pinnacle line moves, I would expect some of the Pinnacle line moves to be decoys. Aren't there times where a ton of money comes pouring in everywhere on the 'non-soft side' 20 minutes later?
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01-05-2010 , 12:09 PM
Who would be setting these decoys?

Who would a decoy benefit?
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01-05-2010 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by B00T
Who would be setting these decoys?

Who would a decoy benefit?

People who are limited by max bets. Send Pinnacle the wrong way, let everyone bet the 'soft side' everywhere else, come back 10 minutes later and bet the right side everywhere.
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01-05-2010 , 04:08 PM
That does happen. But far less than you think. Watch the lines and see how often there is major movement one way, followed by major movement the other way.
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01-05-2010 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp
That does happen. But far less than you think.
I don't doubt it. I've toyed with this, usually on a few days during baseball season when I have nothing else to do, and it seemed like I never did as well as I should have against the closing line. Sometimes it moved the other direction, or sometimes the bet I ran to my computer to get in at 1pm was still available at 7pm at the same price. Which is why I'm curious if anyone who has done this can compare the prices they get to some kind of fair closing price.

Also, NHL today:
1 Florida +1.5 -240 on Pinnacle
2 Toronto -1.5 +240 on WSEX

It's been available for 3 hours. Matchbook says Toronto is the soft side. Why hasn't anyone in this thread jumped on it?
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01-05-2010 , 08:22 PM
Who says they haven't?

Other than the fact WSEX has been in a heap of trouble lately.
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01-05-2010 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by B00T
Who says they haven't?

Other than the fact WSEX has been in a heap of trouble lately.
6 months for a cashout isn't standard????
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01-08-2010 , 03:22 AM
What the hell kind of a name is WSEX for a sportsbook anyway?

Their owner is a nymphomaniac.
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