Am I a luckbox? A huge vagina? Both? - Sports Betting

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Am I a luckbox? A huge vagina? Both?

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01-23-2008 , 04:51 PM

GooseHinson

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,607

So far this NBA season, I'm 96-74 and I've won ~55 units. Now my bankroll consists of roughly 600 units and I'm betting on a scale of 1-5/5.

Is this enough of a sample size so that even my nitty self can raise my unit size? Am I just running good?

Keep in mind this is my first season betting NBA, though I have been following it extremely closely these past 2 seasons.

This may come off as some kind of brag, but really I just want to confirm that I'm in fact a huge nit and hate money.

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01-23-2008 , 05:06 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Umm... Why would you ask a random message board instead of doing a CI on the chance of various win rates?

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01-23-2008 , 05:08 PM

rjp

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,268

If you simply flipped coins, there is a 5.35% chance that you could have this record (or better).

Thremp, I imagine he has no idea how to do that.

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01-23-2008 , 05:16 PM

GooseHinson

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,607

Yup, I don't know much about betting, other then how to pick winners and predict line changes.

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01-23-2008 , 05:45 PM

rjp

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,268

"... other then how to pick winners"

This statement (at the very least) makes you look like a huge vagina. It's not about picking winners.

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01-23-2008 , 05:47 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjp

"... other then how to pick winners"

This statement (at the very least) makes you look like a huge vagina. It's not about picking winners.

Lies. Its all I dew.

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01-23-2008 , 05:57 PM

GooseHinson

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,607

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjp

"... other then how to pick winners"

This statement (at the very least) makes you look like a huge vagina. It's not about picking winners.

Really? I thought only the winning side of the spread got paid

If I'm 55% at picking winning sides, I'll be happy.

I take early lines and routinely get 1-2 points better then the closing line. I think this is my edge.

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01-23-2008 , 06:06 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by GooseHinson

routinely get 1-2 points better then the closing line. I think this is my edge.

This is everyone's edge in the NBA. Except maybe Riccj. But he's a freak and a very weird dude (in a good way).

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01-23-2008 , 09:07 PM

gfxhjk

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

This is everyone's edge in the NBA. Except maybe Riccj. But he's a freak and a very weird dude (in a good way).

i always wondered that about riccj

isn't his model supposed to predict line movements, but more often than not he's on the wrong side of the movement, yet he still has a good record

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01-23-2008 , 09:19 PM

#10

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsigley

i always wondered that about riccj

isn't his model supposed to predict line movements, but more often than not he's on the wrong side of the movement, yet he still has a good record

I don't wtf he uses. Probably devilry.

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01-23-2008 , 09:38 PM

#11

LogistX

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 480

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

I don't wtf he uses. Probably devilry.

I'm hoping his devilry helps the Clippers win, I got freeplay$ riding on it. 100% match on deposit and I had to all-or-nothing it on sides/totals only.

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01-23-2008 , 09:39 PM

#12

dudeimstoked

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,295

sorry, i'm running hotter than you.

NBA 2007-2008
152-112-3 (+86.84 units; ROI: 17.54%)

but yes, i would consider raising your unit size. also you will probably want to be less selective with your plays. if you have a high roi, you are missing out on some +EV wagers.

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01-24-2008 , 12:40 AM

#13

NajdorfDefense

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Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,676

It's important to remember the goal is to win as much $ as possible not to have 'a winning record,' or '55% winners' or whatever nonsense.

So, yeah. Unit size.

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01-24-2008 , 01:06 AM

#14

rush66

old hand

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,223

Both. Can't believe nobody has said it yet

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01-24-2008 , 05:30 AM

#15

LogistX

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 480

Thanks RickJ and all of your black voodoo magic!

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