Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitcoin
I also came up with the same 6 as (currently) the most likely to not make the playoffs:
Texans
Lions
Bengals
Jets
Jaguars
Raiders
However, for the probability that neither of those 6 make it I have +305 (24.7%) as the fair line, not +100. Any other teams and the EV just gets worse...
I don't think it's that bad.
Current fair odds:
Texans -1400
Lions -1075
Jets -675
Bengals -625
Raiders -425
Jaguars -350
(1400/1500)*(1075/1175)*(675/775)*(625/725)*(425/525)*(350/450)=.4037 (40.4%) = +148
It's a terrible wager if the fair odds are correct, but not as bad as 25%. A fairer wager would be 5 teams at even odds (-108 leaving out Jax).
However, these are not independent events. So the calculations are only a guide. The Raiders play the NFC East, and has already beaten Jacksonville. They also play Chicago, Denver, Miami, Cincy and Indy. They play Denver twice. Should they really be -425? They could win ten games and back into the playoffs. The Bengals probably are better than -625. I suspect the fair price for those six teams should probably be closer to +250 or even higher.
In any event, picking six teams not to make the playoffs this year is clearly a sucker bet at even money. Picking five teams is probably -ev, but closer.