Well that’s interesting news Swoop since he didn’t once have the balls to invade Ukraine under Trump but immediately did so without a care in the world under Biden/Kammie-La. One would figure that Putin would feel free reign to do whatever he wanted under one of those regimes. I don’t see any evidence of it pointing to Trump vs the current regime as to whom he did it under. If his goal of the old Soviet Union was his goal you’d figure Trump in 2016 was his dream come true. Instead it was under Biden/Kammie-La.

Something Swoop is missing is the Biden admin was intentionally antagonistic against Russia.

Flirting with the idea of adding Ukraine to NATO was a calculated move by Blinken. They wanted Russia to invade Ukraine. If they didn't, then they handled it about as poorly as possible.

Wonder if Mark Robinson just flipped NC blue. Be interesting to see the polls there is a week or so.

The Orange colored nyc conman will not lose a vote, and Mark Robinson probably gained a few votes.

It’s not every election cycle that I purchase 20k NC ballots but I have this year. Expect no change in November of the Tar Heel state for Trump.

“Trump’s foreign policy sought to do much of what Putin wants to achieve, including intimidating Ukraine by withholding vital defensive weapons.”

Quite right. Putin wanted to undermine the NATO alliance, and Trump undermined the NATO alliance. Putin wanted to weaken the E.U., and Trump made little effort to express his disdain for the E.U. Putin wanted to weaken the U.S. political system, and Trump was unnervingly aggressive in trying to weaken the U.S. political system.

Putin wanted to hurt Ukraine, and Trump launched an extortion scheme that threatened to hurt Ukraine.

Why didn’t the Russian leader deploy troops into Ukraine during Trump’s term? Perhaps because Putin was so pleased with an American president who pursued goals in line with Moscow’s agenda.

Had Putin launched an invasion, it risked upsetting the course he was already delighted to see. Why would the Russian leader get in the way of the progress Trump was already delivering?"


Why didn't Trump get Paul Whelan out? He was abducted during Trump's tenure.

Well that certainly is one spin on the matter now I must say.

There are are some ridiculous takes in this thread

Robinson is toast in NC, it isn't just the black nazi stuff, he said he was pro slavery and was watching trans porn. While the right might view him as 'one of ours' on the issues they're not going to be super keen to vote for the 'n-word who watches tranny porn' even if he aligns with them politically

It may or may not swing the state, but might hurt Trump by a fraction of a percent

If Harris is winning NC though it's already over and Trump is toast, it won't be the state that tips it over the line to 270 unless somehow Trump wins MI or WI along with GA and AZ and NV yet specifically underpeforms in NC

If Trump wins PA AZ GA I guess it's enough if Harris wins WI MI NV and then NC can be the tipping point. I find it hard to believe Trump wins PA and loses NC though even with the black nazi who likes trans porn and is pro slavery on the Republican ticket for governor

On that note if anyone wants Robinson to win NC-Gov would happily take Stein for NC Gov

Would also happily take Trump outperforms Robinson in NC if anyone legitimately thinks Robinson's scandals help him like iwasbanned's post implies.

Am open to props on Harris sweeping the swing states too if anyone wants to offer me +500 or similar on Harris to win all of MI WI PA NC NV AZ GA and the Presidency. Obviously this is somewhat correlated but also requires her to win multiple states where she's currently trailing.

Fairly likely i'll start betting on Harris soon, but don't see any reason to get involved yet even though I make her closer to -150 than -111, would rather take -150 when she's -300 fair price a week out or whatever will be available then to have more complete info and fade the bet when it goes bad

Your views of conservatives is something else I must say, but certainly not modern reality of the modern day person you'll meet on the street.

Trump has a razor thin margin of error. He can win everything he needs to for the swing states in his favor, but still needs PA or it's toast. Kammie-La pulling off a single one of them, and any swing state not going her way equals election over and potentially WW3 at the rate we're going under her and Biden.

imagine being featured in newsweek for your election model based on prediction markets and... not understanding prediction markets?

surely nothing more ridic than "only death can stop biden"... find it odd you continue to speak authoritatively in this thread making precise fair value estimates on an event that might as well be schroedingers box

-500 is worse than mkt odds for anyone eager to fade this correlated par lay

Yeah, Swoop, it's pretty rich for you to bring up bad takes in this thread. Your posts also smack of bias, which is fine for op-eds, but that's not what anyone wants to read here. For example, do you really think this black lieutenant governor in NC is pro-slavery? Like if he were given the authority to do so, he would reinstitute slavery? I'm not going to bother looking into whatever joke or edgy comment he made that led to scumbag journalists reporting that he's pro-slavery, but just use your brain—especially with regard to things you'd like to be true but that might not be true.

I'm not going to bother to look into what he said, proceeds to have opinion about what he said and what his actual opinions are

I've always posted my positions on the politics threads here and I'm up substantially across a bunch of election cycles. I got Biden not dropping out wrong and lost a normal sized bet as opposed to anything huge. I'm down small this cycle so far but the size of the bet was trivial compared to whatever I'll end up with on the general. I went 1-1 in 2016 for a loss having a Clinton bet split between popular vote and ec. I won my biggest bet ever in 2020 on Biden. I won an assortment of bets in 08 and 12. Went 1-1 on major bets in 2010. Didn't have anything significant on the other cycles.

I'm offering bets here if anyone wants to either give me action or tail then elsewhere. If not feel free to ignore me.

At this stage it's likely I'll be betting Harris at some stage (likely hedged with Walz at close to 500 bucks on Betfair in case of random assassinations or health issues) but I haven't yet, there is no real reason to get involved this far out still with incomplete info when I very much doubt the market is going to adjust correctly as we get closer to the election in either direction. Ad it stands Harris is probably about 60 percent to win which is the ev side, but we will have better information closer to the election

Offer stands if anyone thinks Robinson wins in NC or outperforms Trump vote percentage wise will take his opponent at market price in the governor race or will take Trump to outperform him if anyone thinks his comments help him.

Best of Luck

Blinken was still deputy national security under Obama when Russia attacked Ukraine, so that's quite a hot take.