No

The same reason why you shouldn't of put your life saving on Hillary -300 last election. The US election system is not to be trusted. It is like betting on a sporting event that you know is likely fixed, but you aren't sure who the fix is in for..... so F it, ill just lay a bunch of vig and hope for the best.

So no... I don't think "putting your life savings" on Biden -150 is a great idea.

ftr, I do lean towards Biden but I am skeptical of a lot of things, including the line not being higher right now.

In his defense, his life savings is probably only a couple hundred dollars.

Is bookmaker taking any action on political bets atm? I can't log in and navigate my way to their politics page. They've made it impossible or I'm just stupid

Yes. Plenty of betting options for politics today that I didn't see last week.
I logged in easy today, although I did need 3_attempts yesterday. I don't know why.

Look of bet options screen from tablet

I could've sworn it wasn't there yesterday, but it is now. Thanks!

Yeah now that I'm signed in, I can no longer see it

good stuff

That is wierd. Sorry my screen shot is garbage, but as you can see, it's right underneath golf.
Is that from your mobile?
Is it possibly in futures?

I'm sure someone here can be of better assistance?

Edit: I just noticed, you also don't have the stock markets betting options.

yes you did. lmao

The Democratic convention is Aug 17-20. Biden should probably choose his running mate before he gets nominated. Historically running mates get announced Thurs/Fri before the convention, so Aug 13-14. Biden has said he wants to make the choice around Aug 1, and then said "early August".

>95% chance this lands between Aug 2 and Aug 15th.

Expanding on your thoughts is not the same as talking to yourself. You guys are legit mouth breathers with zero reading comprehension.

Biden up 13 points in Pennsylvania.

really curious who is behind this gimmick account

Anyone know a good place to bet the election for an American where my balance will be safe?

I'm already maxed out on PredictIt.

Pokershares if you deposit via bitcoin maybe? Not sure if they take Americans but you can bet in BTC there and they have big limits

Or obv Betfair if you have an overseas friend you trust with your money

nicely done thus far

Looks like Pokershares says no Americans.

Actually hadn’t considered the second option. I bet I could come up with a couple of people. Does betfair issue any kind of tax forms for winners? I would think not since the UK doesn’t tax gambling winnings? Just don’t want to create a tax headache for whoever is helping me out.

susan rice up 8c today. her 31 vs kamala 37 right now. seems like a lot movement when i cant find a story that would change things

newbie question but does predictit actually pay out at $1 per share if you candidate wins, or do you need to hope the market moves and you can sell high before the actual election?

$1 minus fees (10% of profit on the share)

I can only speak from a country with no taxes on sports betting or gambling winnings but no Betfair doesn't issue forms here no books do

Been just looking at the polls recently and doing absolutely no research lately, just to be clear. It looks like Georgia is still solid Trump. On the other hand, Biden is polling very well in Florida at the moment. What is a surprise to me. Despite Covid19 raging there, it's still always been a very close state.
Another surprise to me is that Biden seems to be polling better in Wisconsin than in Michigan. Anyone have any thoughts?

I don't see any evidence he's polling significantly better in Wisconsin than Michigan whats your source for that

Regarding Florida, remember there were hundreds of thusands of Puerto Ricans who have relocated to Florida plus some felons who skew minority and are likely to lean D since the last election, plus the Florida voters removed from the pool will skew towards old people dying and while yes theyre replaced by other old people who move there, there's also new voters turning 18 etc every year

https://www.politico.com/states/flor...antage-1294263

Also, Covid is hitting Florida now and Trump and DeSantis haven't exactly been handling that very well

Also Biden is old, white and moderate and far less unpopular than Hillary whereas Trump is more unpopular than he was four years ago because well, it's hard to say his first term has gone well by any metric, he has all one one major legislative accomplishment in his tax cuts and has lurched from scandal to scandal

All it takes is 1 in 100 voters disliking Clinton who is okay with Biden, 1 in 100 voters who just turned 18 or moved from Puerto Rico or got their voting rights back and 1 in 100 voters who wanted to give Trump a chance and is now disappointed with him and suddenly FL is a lean Dem state, people forget Trump only won it by 1% and change last time and that was losing the national vote by 2.x%

So if we can assume FL is about 3 points more Republican than the country as a whole, Biden needs to win the popular vote by about 3% or so to be a fav there, and he's up 9 or thereabouts in most polls nationally so logically he should be up 5 or 6 points in FL which isn't too far from the reality but thats assuming nothings changed from 4 years ago which it probably has a bit.

Some polls have Biden up 10 there etc, so there's a chance FL is 1-2% less Republican than it was 4 years ago due to demographic change, disillusionment with Trump/Republicans, the poor R-led Covid response, Puerto Rican voters who obv don't approve of how Trump handled the hurricanes + some ex felon voters getting their right to vote back etc

As other old people that old voters know in FL die from Covid I don't see how that can help Trump either as a) the old voters skew R and b) they're certainly not going to become MORE Republican as they know more and more people who get badly sick or die from Covid

Anyway obviously Trump is live there because lol florida and also Republican voter suppression shenanigans and whatnot but Biden's basically the perfect Democratic candidate there because he's old and safe and white and moderate but also liked by black voters and his opponent is specifically hated by Hispanic voters

Like I said, I've been lazy lately. Biden just seems to have pulled do far ahead, what's the point.
Of course that's the wrong attitude.
Anyways.
According to Fox, Biden is up by an incredible 12 points in Wisconsin. I find that hard to believe. But I just took a peak at the Five thirty Eight polling.
Biden has a +6.8 average in Wisconsin and a 7.6 average advantage in Michigan.
So I guess those numbers reflect reality more accurately.

Listen, after the way Trump has been running the country, he should be behind in all states.
But, enough people think he's an awesome guy. What are they going to believe, the media? It's all fake news, right?