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2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

03-13-2020 , 02:12 PM
Blame me again for being political.
Somebody do us all a favor and ban me from posting for a month.

There aren't nearly enough test kits.
Trump and the conservatives were just recently, before the outbreak, trying to gut the CDC along with just about every other government agency.
Conservative approach to small government. Genius, isn't it?

I dunno know though why the doctor didn't just say that.
Hope it's not too serious and your mom will be ok.
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03-13-2020 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
Dr said no because she wasn't high risk enough.

Yikes
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03-13-2020 , 03:08 PM
Ok. To be fair. According to Politifact

. "Fired" may be a little strong , but in 2018, too national security officials handling pandemics left abruptly and were not replaced by the Trump administration.

. As for funding, there's no question that the Trump administration sought to cut key cdc budget categories, but thanks to Congress,( you guys know the one, the Democratic dominated Congress. My own embedded words), that funding was restored and even increased in bills that Trump ultimately signed.

Jees, all these libs want to do is spend taxpayers money.
Why should I have to pay for someone else's corona testing?
Let them taste their own corona. I prefer Heineken anyways.
This isn't communist Russia , for Pete's sake.
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03-13-2020 , 03:10 PM
what's a line on trump during this announcement just goes F it i quit. that's what I would do here
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03-13-2020 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro
I think the markets will stop panicking soon after the government starts panicking.
Yeahhh boiiii.
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03-13-2020 , 07:45 PM
Made a couple bets on PokerShares today. €1k on Trump @ 2.10 this morning, and another €4K on Trump @ 2.01 after the press conference at the White House.
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03-13-2020 , 07:47 PM
It seems like he is turning it around, which I am happy to see. We're still going to see a lot of cases though, this thing is just getting started.
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03-13-2020 , 08:19 PM
Canadian here. Can someone explain this to me please? Why is there a difference in odds on pokershares between "Next President: Trump" @ 2.01, AND "Winning Party: Republicans" @ 1.97? Seems like the same bet to me, or am I missing something?
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03-13-2020 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by isplashcranberrys
Canadian here. Can someone explain this to me please? Why is there a difference in odds on pokershares between "Next President: Trump" @ 2.01, AND "Winning Party: Republicans" @ 1.97? Seems like the same bet to me, or am I missing something?
It’s not 100% guaranteed he will be the next nominee, probably 99.9% though unless something crazy dramatic happened (he gets sick and dies) or something of equal gravity.
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03-13-2020 , 08:42 PM
To expand on what Cody said.
Unlike most western democracys, American political parties don't have a head of the party in the classical sense. For example. If Angela Merkel loses the German general election, she still remains the heads of her party, unless she steps down or is voted out of her position by her own party.
It doesn't work like that in the U.S.. If Trump loses, he returns to being a private citizen. That's why we have primaries each election cycle.
All this means is, there is a very slim chance that Trump won't be the Republican party nominee. I wouldn't bet on it!

If I'm wrong in anything I wrote, I welcome correction.

I hate to have to admit, I know very little about how the Canadian system works.
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03-13-2020 , 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
It’s not 100% guaranteed he will be the next nominee, probably 99.9% though unless something crazy dramatic happened (he gets sick and dies) or something of equal gravity.
Given the contact he’s had at his age with people who have tested positive for COVID, he’s got a much higher than 0.1% chance of dying from that alone, along with other random stuff (heart attack, assassination, etc.).
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03-14-2020 , 12:24 AM
Yeah its basically the chances he either dies or has to step down due to health issues or whatever or the slim chance he does something so impeachable that the Republican Senate convicts him (which will never happen no matter what he does)

It's basically the odds that Trump is still alive on election day

Gotta think Trump is a small to moderate dog for reelection now even with all of Biden's flaws, but again will depend a lot on how the response is handled from here and how ****ed the economy is on election day (it's likely to still be pretty ****ed)

The economy is basically all Trump has to keep any moderate support outside of his core base unless he can absolutely nail the COVID response from here and to say that seems unlikely is fairly generous given plenty of people who are sick are still unable to be tested for it etc

Obv in hindsight I wish I had some Dem +160 that I was talking about a week or two ago but still don't really want to tie up the funds for months and I doubt either side will be worse than -200 a few weeks out because there's always so much casual money ready to bet on 'their team' on both sides in politics betting
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03-14-2020 , 03:05 AM
So I guess Andrew Gillum is out as a VP potential candidate for anyone, headlines involving 'crystal meth overdose' and 'gay escort' pretty much make that a non starter

Curious to see the facts come out about that one, Florida Man memes for days
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03-15-2020 , 01:00 PM
You've gotta think the books are going to pivot heavily to politics/current events in the coming weeks/months. There are elections all over the world all the time. That and coronavirus-related action.
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03-15-2020 , 07:07 PM
What do we think. I bet these

Trump said u25.5 times +100
Non Facts Sanders u3.5 +140
Stock market o4.5 times +160
Non Facts Biden o2.5 -200
Coronavirus o10.5 times +120
No elbow bumping during debate +200

Square plays? Or are these sharp.
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03-15-2020 , 07:30 PM
I wanted to ask the same questions. I can't find a reliable source on the last debate.
It's mentioned on one web site that Trump was mentioned 63 times, but when 20 candidates were still debating over 2 days.
Nothing solid to go on.

If I had to take a guess, but I doubt I"ll wager on these;
I'd go with
Trump said o25.5
Non facts Sanders u3.5
Stock Market o4.5
Coro o10.5
No elbow. Ohh, that's a good one. Pence did it right?
And I always thought Pence was a robot. He seemed Human last conference he gave.
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03-15-2020 , 07:57 PM
this looks like a forearm bump to me

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03-15-2020 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley
this looks like a forearm bump to me

Did u stick with the no elbow bumb?

I was sort of hinting, with Pence analogy, that it was more than likely.
But truth be told, I didn't have the commitment. That's why I didn't say it outright.
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03-15-2020 , 10:13 PM
how did coronavirus o10.5 not cash when every question was about it
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03-15-2020 , 10:23 PM
i think bernie called it ebola a few times
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03-15-2020 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by insanity31
i think bernie called it ebola a few times
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03-16-2020 , 05:18 PM
how can trump be anywhere near 50% to win the election? i thought that before the CV. it was minority view. but now it seems completely obvious.

if trump is sure to lose, anyone think he drops out?... unfortunately, most of the odds on "trump as republican candidate" = winning the nomination at the convention, not being the candidate on election day in november

just as historical contest, LBJ didn't run for re-election. not too many others that i know of. sorry, LBJ did run and win in 1964. but not 1968 and he was eligible.
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03-16-2020 , 05:59 PM
he did a much better job than previous presidents and most of his base don't care

and he is vsing 2 senile old men who can't string sentences together
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03-16-2020 , 06:42 PM
coronavirus o10.5 regraded to yes so looks like

trump under 25.5 win +1
sanders non facts u3.5 L -1
stock market o4.5 L -1
Biden non facts W +1
Corona o10.5 W +1.2
No elbow bump W + 2 (betonline didn't count the pre debate one)
4-2 +3.2 easy game
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03-17-2020 , 04:37 AM
“It doesn’t matter who wins because Bernie Sanders already won.”
- Peter Schiff on the recent political proclivities of both parties.

He’s not wrong, fiscal responsibility is dead. These Republican candidates are channeling Andrew Yang.
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