Thought I'd make a thread, if anyone has any opinions etc. or not, at least a friendly reminder that betfair has/will have pretty good liquidity for it compared to other places.

Have faded boyhood at 1/8, for a few hundred before SAG, my only play so far. Will prob play some of the huge favs as well or something else, not sure yet.

You laid 8-1 against Boyhood for Best Picture and then made a thread about it?

Boyhood best editing -200 seemed like a steal, haven't checked to see where it moved tho.

Also hopped on the Birdman steam for Best Director/Picture

Am slightly concerned by the seemingly sharp and late money for Richard Linklater for 'Best Director'. He's still very slightly odds-against. Alejandro Inarritu remains odds-on but 'friendless'.

I've jumped on the 'Birdman' to win both the 'Picture' and 'Director' Oscars bandwagon after the PGA and DGA wins but I don't know if it's 'weight of money' or ahem, 'informed opinion' with late money on Richard Linklater.

Picking Linklater over Inarritu is going against the last ten out of twelve years of DGA with Rob Marshall over Martin Scorsese the last time they didn't go with the eventual Oscar winner (excluding the Ben Affleck debacle when he wasn't nominated for a corresponding Oscar).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directo...3_Feature_Film

The narrative being by picking Richard Linklater that they're honouring his '12 years commitment' to making 'Boyhood' and that AMPAS likely won't be picking it to win 'Picture' so that's his 'consolation prize'.

Golden Globes, BAFTA and just overnight, the Independent Spirit Awards have picked Richard Linklater. The DGA didn't, going for Alejandro Inarritu instead.

Me? I'm going with the DGA until proven otherwise and Linklater somehow wins.

Amusingly over on another website, a rather large betting syndicate has gone for 'Boyhood' to win 'Picture' and still is even after the SAG 'Best Ensemble' win for 'Birdman'. If it comes off then well done. In my jokey opinion, only switching the envelope at the last moment for when it should read 'Birdman' to then read 'Boyhood' is it actually going to happen.

'Birdman', 'Birdman', 'Birdman' to win 'Picture' until proven otherwise by the actual event.

(CUE; 'Boyhood' and Richard Linklater will somehow win 'Picture' and 'Director' now)

I'd highly doubt there is a "large betting syndicate" on Boyhood

Hmmm. I did read the thread wrong over there. It was the thoughts of a senior member of a betting syndicate not that a large betting syndicate was on 'Boyhood'.

I don't think there's much value in either Best Picture or Best Director. Birdman is a modest favorite to win them both, but far from a lock. The offered odds are basically correct.

Betting the favorites in Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor is free money. Not much money, obviously, since they're all going at about 1/33, but free nonetheless.

Best value imo is Redmayne to win Best Actor. He's won all of the important predecessor awards. His role is a biopic of someone who contracted a terrible disease, which is Oscar gold. Only negative on him is his relatively short resume. Keaton though is no prize pony himself, with pretty much just Batman and Beetlejuice to his name. Redmayne at 1/3 is great value when his real odds are more like 90%.

I would think there's value on Keaton at +300 and better, but this is just my gut feeling nothing else, it seems like the type of spot of names playing a factor. Still, I'll probably wait and see a price rise 30min or so before it's announced.

I usually crush awards like these but I have some pretty bad prices going into tonight. I loaded up on a lot of boyhood for best pic and best director at good prices (at the time), then a ton of birdman money came in. I grabbed some birdman best pic at +115 and +120, but not enough to compensate for the -1400 I have for boyhood best director, which may be one of the worst bets Ive ever made.

Strange movement this year, all the birdman money came in after the baftas, where boyhood actually won.

I have a small sweat on Birdman -180 for BP thats about it for me

Grand Budapest Hotel for best original screenplay at -200.

I believe the price is thrown off by the fact that Birdman won "this" category in the Golden Globes. But the categories are apples and oranges. Plus, the voting tends to spread itself out - Birdman is going to win enough of the other awards that Academy voters wont feel obligated to give it this one.

Plus, I live in Hollywood and lots of little birdies tell me this and that about various things...which of course sets me up perfectly to look like an idiot. But oh well.

Ouch.

I'll give 4:1 to anyone who wants to bet against Glory to win best song. So I would have Glory, the other person would have all other nominees. Transfer via Stars and must be somewhat reputable poster.

What's happening with the British bookies at Oddschecker this year!? Money for 'American Sniper' to win 'Picture' and Bradley Cooper to win 'Actor'.

Drunk or drug fuelled money like last year...hopefully. One of these times, the late money will be proved correct but I don't think it'll be today.

Richard Linklater has been bet on like someone's been told he's going to win 'Director'. He's still just about odds-against with all the money for Alejandro Inarritu having dried up. Some have bet on Wes Anderson for the upset though.

The money keeps coming for 'American Sniper' to win 'Sound Editing' and 'Whiplash' to win 'Sound Mixing'.

'Foreign Language' appears to be mostly going for 'Ida' with some betting on an upset from either 'Tangerines' or 'Wild Tales'.

'Boogaloo and Graham' all the rage to win 'Live Action Short' ahead of long time favourite 'The Phone Call'.

'Feast' is considered a shoo-in by most critics for 'Animated Short' but 'The Dam Keeper' has seen some support.

'Joanna' has been the positive to win 'Documentary Short' but it's still 'Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1' that is a heavy favourte to win.

Though 'The Grand Budapest Hotel' has seen support for it to win 'Original Score' thanks to recent BAFTA and Grammy wins, it's 'The Theory of Everything' that punters want to be on.

'The Imitation Game' looks likely to fend off 'Whiplash' and 'American Sniper' (little money for it here...mostly 20/1+) for 'Adapted Screenplay'. 'The Grand Budapest Hotel' goes into moderate odds-on to upset both 'Birdman' and 'Boyhood' for 'Original Screenplay'.

I don't think squares betting 5 quid here or there on American Sniper can be qualified as late money. Just a little lolBritain.

I wonder what could be considered the biggest historical upset in a major category. Hard to quantify pre early 2000s but still, I wonder if any of the 50/1 or higher longshots ever got there (I would assume so?)

Highest one that I remember in a major category was The Secret In Their Eyes which won as a 15-1 long shot. I had 1k on that one.

There aren't really any long shots like 50/1 that ever have a remote chance in hell of winning.

Def didn't close that high, it was the second favorite. I think it was around +200-300 before it was announced.

Going to throw a few hundred on Keaton, feeling the dogs tonight and I'm up huge. Hopefully it gets matched on betfair.

Tilda Swinton was 18-1 in 2008.

looked back on the trades, and you're right, was 3-1 on day of oscars...it opened as a pretty large underdog (over 10-1).

i must've been scalping to get to a 15-1

Didn't close that high either, it was under 10 to 1.

Also only got 20$ matched on Keaton on betfair lols. so much for liquidity. Sucked this year in every category.

It was 10/1+ before word got around that it was doing well with various sections of AMPAS (back in the days when voters had to watch all five foreign language nominees at AMPAS sanctioned screenings) and the odds of '...Secret...' caved into single digits. 'The White Ribbon' and 'A Prophet' were considered more likely winners back in 2010.

Tilda Swinton definitely wasn't 10/1+ on the night but her price was slashed after she won the corresponding BAFTA into 2/1 and less with Cate Blanchett for 'I'm Not There' and Ruby Dee in 'American Gangster' (she won the SAG!) a pair of uneasy favourites.

The biggest odds since 2000!? I think it was Marcia Gay Harden when she won 'Supporting Actress' for 'Pollock' as she was 20/1+ with Kate Hudson in 'Almost Famous' the odds-on favourite.

Results oriented thinking and only 'after the fact' aftertiming with '50/50' categories such as Inarritu winning 'Director' and 'Birdman' winning 'Picture' but sometimes you've just got to stick with what the guilds went for.

Some of the late money was accurate ('American Sniper' for 'Sound Editing' and 'Whiplash winning 'Sound Mixing') but most of what I noted at Oddschecker was wrong as most of the favourites ended up winning.

'Big Hero 6' for 'Animated Feature' and 'Whiplash' for 'Editing' were upsets but both had their fans. The former, mostly with the thinking that Dreamworks generally can't win and that they pad the ballot at the Annies whilst for the latter, some really liked the last scene of 'Whiplash'.

my first negative year ever on the oscars

normally i don't bet on longshots but i bet on longshots this year and it didn't pay off too well

betting against boyhood was at least profitable, lolcritics

its a little tilting that you have no clue how close you came to winning/losing in the different categories. don't know if your underdog bet was good or bad.

I was just mentioning 2000s since I figured it would be significantly harder to trace back odds earlier than that. Do you know of anything else prior? I'm also not that acquainted with the Oscars prior to around 2007 or so when I first started betting them.

And where could you even bet prior to the offshore books? Did any Vegas (or other states, and English or maybe Asian? bookies) have shops, legal at least, for it during the time?