all i want to say is that you are at the top of your range and that a smart villain can easily cr river here and be quite confident that you are not going to call.

Meh. I've basically won this thread. The reason that nobody will try to construct a calling range that you beat is that it isn't possible to do so. Therefore you're resorting to the Zen strategy of asserting that building a calling range for this player is impossible. That it is difficult to build a calling range is beside the point since you can make the most ludicrous assumptions about his range and it still comes out as a check. For instance:



Here I've assumed that he can have ANY ace, ANY pocket pair (except deuces, but go ahead, include those if you like, why not) and ANY six and that he calls you on the river with ALL of them. But I've also assumed he plays all the hands he calls on the flop as check call, check call, which seems only fair given the rest of the assumptions. The result is that your hand is STILL not winning. There just aren't any assumptions even close to approaching reasonable under which AK is going to be winning most of the time on this river.

(I've also assumed that he doesn't donk the river with strong hands, but this seems right given that he checkraised in the actual hand. It's also probably the correct play given what a hard-on most of SSNL has for thin value betting in this spot).

This is definitely not true. You're close to at the bottom of your river betting range unless you randomly decided to triple barrel a loose guy with KQ or something. There are a ton of hands you could have that are better than AK: 33-77, aces up, suited connectors etc etc. If forced to value bet this river I would definitely fold the c/r, it's a bluff close to 0% of the time.

I think the mistake a lot of you guys are making in analysing this hand is to assume that AK is a strong hand on this board before we even start talking about how the other guy plays. It isn't particularly. Against the set of all hands that are remotely plausible to call the flop (any ace, any six, any three, any pocket pair, any draw) AK is only 60/40 on this final board. That's before we begin talking about what will call the river etc.

Chris you didnt win anything, you seem to have a hard on for giving out weak tight advice in nearly every thread. Stick to SNGs or whatever else it is that you do.

it seems that only 2 people have put out any hand ranges, Chris and I and both make it an easy check behind, and as I pointed out, if he EVER check raise bluffs it makes it even an easier check behind.

If it's so clearly a bet, why can't one person give a range where it's an easy bet, but I guess you didn't win Chris, because more people said bet.

Yeah I also didn't win because I am weak tight and an SNG donk, o snap

As long as we're e-peening, I play mostly 3/6 and 5/10 and have ~400,000 hands over the last year and a half.

Also, even though I tend to agree with Chris based on how this hand played out, I think this is most definitely a read-based river play, and either a check or bet could be correct given the situation (obv). All 60/12/1's are not created equal, and I think this is the only aspect Chris's mathematical analysis seems to ignore. I think game flow has a big impact on villain's range for a check/call on the flop and turn. Tilt affects people in amazing ways.

hero is second to act, he can just check behind

I r have no reading comprehension. Edited.

villain limp-called a raise PF and has a 12% pf raise.
he can have every set, and every two pair basically.
not only that, but 45 and other suited 4's will play similarly.

this is an over-estimation of your hand. in a singly raised pot, you have a to have a pretty good board and a decent amount of knowledge to narrow your opponents range enough to make three streets of value. otherwise, you need to check a street somewhere. riv. is obvious fold.

your river bet size says it all. you're betting less than half-pot, becuase you cannot face a raise. you have overbuilt the pot, and there are basically no worse hands left to call. any raggy ace has to realize it is not ahead anymore by riv. betting 3rd street like this is just opening yourself to get raised by better hands.

this is not an allin hand, i do not believe you should shove turn. basically no worse hands will call. its not like he limp-called AQ pf. any worse rag-ace will not put it to the felt. you'd just be hanging your stack. you'd be overepresenting the strength of your hand if you did so. its essentially turning TPTK into a bluff.

If you check this river, you are going to check/fold it. Just wanted to mention that.

this

WP!

roger maynefeld: "guys, check out this thread"

clayton: "wait... i dont understand what people are arguing about"

carrotsnake: "me neither"

seriously, why are people debating this. Chris, you are not doing a good job presenting the argument that euro sites are harder than american sites if you can beat 3/6 and 5/10 and your analysis is this ... It should be more like, HAHA, TOPPEST PAIR, VALUEZTOWN THIS WAY, RIDING THE TRAM NOW

i actually think the river is debatable, unlike carrot who thinks its an instabet

i think the flop and turn betsizing is suboptimal against the player described, OP should bet closer to the pot both times

I check river

Wat? What kind of lunatic would argue that? Wait, is that your whole point?

One thing that should be pointed out is that, as much as we're arguing about this it can't possibly matter very much.

All the responses I've got have been "Thing is I'm xpert at the poker and this is xpert value bet you have tptk HE IS DONKEY QUICK BET". I don't find this convincing since I am xpert at the poker too and this doesn't look like a value bet to me. Convincing me that this is a bet wouldn't be very hard. It would involve writing down a list of hands that you think would take this line and call a bet and then using pokerstove to demonstrate that AK is ahead of that range. If this is such an obvious tram ride to valuetown then this shouldn't be very hard.

Seeing the responses so far, I'm kind of surprised. My default is to bet the river as played and fold to the push, even with us only having to be right like 20-25%. However, it is close with this board, but still. I do prefer betting more on the earlier streets with 100BB to set up for a standard river shove, but whatever.

Imo, if this is the line you choose, I like the river bet and the size. My range for him is obviously wide, he shows up with a weaker ace, a lot of pairs, a couple of draws, etc. I expect him to show up with a pair or a weaker ace here a lot imo.

The bar at the bottom is the percentage of hands you've selected, not your equity against them.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

224 games 0.049 secs 4,571 games/sec

Board: Ah 3d 6s 7h 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.429% 70.09% 01.34% 157 3.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 28.571% 27.23% 01.34% 61 3.00 { 44+, 22, A8s+, A5s-A2s, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, 74s+, 62s+, 54s, A8o+, A5o-A2o, K6o, Q6o, J6o, T6o, 96o, 86o, 76o }

mannnn chris is too right in this thread.

I think all you tags are confused at the difference between valuebetting 60/14's and 20/18's or 30/20's etc. The fish suckout a lot more often because they call more often. So your behind hands on the river that the average tag would never play (Like A5o). Also his range isn't clearly defined as one pair on the river, which is another problem.

god just look at the dudes stoves and its obvious you can't bet (but if he bet its very reasonable to call).....

but whatever, as chris quickly found out he's talking into a madeup mind that is convinced that the river is a bet.

this post is a good example. You lose to 5 hands and beat 6 hands. Add in his slowplays+chasing and betting the river is definitely way too thin...

lol I know how to use pokerstove. The equity was better than that but < 50%.

This is the most rigged range ever. You exclude obvious possibilities like 43s, 54o, 33 etc etc and include extremely dubious river calls like pocket deuces and, well, basically every one pair six hand you could possibly dig up. If every one pair six hand is in his pf limp-call range AND his river call range, then yes it will be a value bet.

You're not even consistent. Why is K6o in there and K6s isnt?

check/call river imo. Lotsa 2 pair got there.