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Value betting a set on a 4 to straight board Value betting a set on a 4 to straight board

11-24-2008 , 02:34 PM
Villan seems to be a decent reg. I have him at 22/20 over 1.1k hands, with AF 5.3.

I'm playing 24/19. Table is 3 decent regs and 1 mega-fish, who we're fighting over. Villan and myself dont have any history.

On river I put him on a 1 pair hand that doesnt want to play a big pot, so decide to make a river value bet. A 9 makes a straight but I don't see a tonne of 9's in his utg opening range (although we are 4 handed at the moment).

Do you make a small value bet on the river? I make 40% pot vbet.

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $198.00
BB: $200.00
CO: $391.85
Hero (BTN): $281.30

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 7 7
CO raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19.00) 3 7 T (2 players)
CO bets $14.00, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($47.00) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $40.00, CO calls $40

River: ($127.00) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $50.00
11-24-2008 , 02:43 PM
Why no flop-raise?

I like the river vbet because I think there's value from 2pairs and a posisble scared overpair. And he's never bluffraising you here so if he raises you, he has a 9. I think you're right that it's hard for villain to have a 9 here.
11-24-2008 , 02:46 PM
I bet more in the river, like $75.
11-24-2008 , 03:14 PM
Sure, good valuebet, but I'd just make it bigger. Flop's whatever, I'd raise here more often than not.
11-24-2008 , 03:25 PM
Yeah I raise flop the vast majority of the time here.

Wasnt sure whether vbet was too thin on the river. Villan actually c/r'd me which suprised the **** out of me. Why wouldnt he just vbet a 9...? Has he seen my bet as a thin vbet, and has he turned his hand into a bluff...? The small c/r makes me doubt so.

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $198.00
BB: $200.00
CO: $391.85
Hero (BTN): $281.30

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 7 7
CO raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19.00) 3 7 T (2 players)
CO bets $14.00, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($47.00) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $40.00, CO calls $40

River: ($127.00) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $50.00, CO raises to $125
11-24-2008 , 03:28 PM
damn........looks like ure potstuck here? u have 112 in and its 75 more to you...
11-24-2008 , 04:37 PM
not raising the flop is pretty much a disaster, plus the fact that you're almost 150 deep. You're repping like 3, maybe 4 made hands + a boatload of draws/air when you raise the flop and it's party poka where everyone is ******ed so the likelihood of getting played back at is prob high.
11-24-2008 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WHITEBOYAEHS
damn........looks like ure getting too good a price to fold here? there is 302 in and its 75 more to you...
FYP. It doesn't matter how much money he's put in the pot up to this point. This is a cash game, not a tournament, you can keep rebuying forever. Unless you are really deep with a big fish and you don't want to take a marginal spot b/c you think you may lose the EV of being deep vs a bad player, but that's not the case here.

It's a weird **** line whatever it is. I expect there to be plenty of 9's in a 22/20's opening range 4handed so I wouldn't discount anything due to that. c/c turn and then c/r river small is... eh, weird. I'd call and expect to get shown some weird club draw or something often enough w him usually having some sort of 9x.

Flop raise seems almost mandatory given you are a little deep, 4handed, and it's a drawy board. Unless you have a really good that he will like auto triple barrel if you don't raise anywhere.

      
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