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Two sets vs a 65/5 Two sets vs a 65/5

04-28-2008 , 06:42 PM
Villain is running 65/5/1.4 over 200 datamined hands, no notes yet other than that he overbet shoved a river earlier, didn't get a caller.

5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($88.00)
Hero ($103.13)
BTN ($131.56)
SB ($77.74)
BB ($89.60)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is CO 6 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $4 ($99.13), 2 folds, BB calls $3 ($85.60)

Flop: T J 8 ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks ($85.60), Hero checks ($99.13)

Turn: A ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks ($85.60), Hero checks ($99.13)

River: 6 ($8.5, 2 players)
BB bets $6 ($79.60), Hero?
04-28-2008 , 06:43 PM
Raise to 28 and if he shoves... yuck. Don't really know what to do then given your reads...
04-28-2008 , 06:47 PM
raise/fold to like 24 i think
04-28-2008 , 06:58 PM
you raise fold yeah
04-29-2008 , 12:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by orange
you raise fold yeah
Ok. Is this only against this villain or thinking opponents also?
04-29-2008 , 02:38 AM
most "thinking opponents aren't going to be checking down the flop and turn in a raised pot out of position and then weak leading for such a small percentage. Bet folding against this kind of villain is good since he will often look you up with a wide range of hands ranging from Jx and higher.Villains range is a lot wider than just hands that beat a set.
04-29-2008 , 02:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spete
Villain is running 65/5/1.4 over 200 datamined hands, no notes yet other than that he overbet shoved a river earlier, didn't get a caller.

5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($88.00)
Hero ($103.13)
BTN ($131.56)
SB ($77.74)
BB ($89.60)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is CO 6 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $4 ($99.13), 2 folds, BB calls $3 ($85.60)

Flop: T J 8 ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks ($85.60), Hero checks ($99.13)

Turn: A ($8.5, 2 players)
BB checks ($85.60), Hero checks ($99.13)

River: 6 ($8.5, 2 players)
BB bets $6 ($79.60), Hero?

I read Orange write r/f and think why? Why not raise/call for value?

We know that villain plays most of his hands. 200 hand isn't a big sample, but with a 65 VPIP it says a lot. The 5 PFR indicates to me that villain raises with QQ+ and AK, so he prob doesn't have that. The aggression factor is low, but that's normal with such a high VPIP, unless he's an absolute maniac.
We also know that villain overbet/shoved a river, but did he lead out that time? And he didn't shove this time, so that's not really helpful.

Let's look at how the hand played out.
Villain preflop called, but that's normal
A possible straight and a flushdraw appeared on the flop and both of you checked.
The possible flushdraw came in on the turn with the ace (a card that fits with your most probable raising range) and again, both of you checked.
On the river, you make your hand and villain leads out 3/4 pot, indicating he has something. It is very improbable that he has been helped by the six as you have 2, the six doesn't complete a straightdraw (he would already have that) and a flushdraw (bare ) missed.
Ok, and thus you raise to about 24. With what hands could villain shove and think he has you beat? Remember that you haven't shown any strength during the hand!
A made straight? Wouldn't he have protected that?
A made flush? That would fit (planning a c/r on the turn after you bet your ace) and be a cooler, but that's poker.
A higher set? Wouldn't villain want to protect that?
Two pair? AJ, AT, A8, JT, J8, T8, 86
Top pair? AQ, A9? As you haven't shown any strength, this could still very well be.
Maybe villain got frisky with second pair as - again - you haven't shown any strength upto the reraise on the river.

Bottom line: As the better hands seem unlikely, I would cry and call the all in and make extensive notes either way.

Last edited by Jay2u; 04-29-2008 at 02:46 AM.
04-29-2008 , 02:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay2u
I read Orange write r/f and think why? Why not call for value?
Bc he's a monkey he'll call w/ ALOT worse than a set here.
04-29-2008 , 02:45 AM
call for value? makes no sense. guy's a nimrod, will call with lots of bull****, etc. i mean, yeah, you can call but you're just leaving $ on the table. plus given the way we got there, he's rarely raising worse. i mean, sure, he might raise AJ but ehhh not sure.
04-29-2008 , 02:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tempel
Bc he's a monkey he'll call w/ ALOT worse than a set here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by orange
call for value? makes no sense. guy's a nimrod, will call with lots of bull****, etc. i mean, yeah, you can call but you're just leaving $ on the table. plus given the way we got there, he's rarely raising worse. i mean, sure, he might raise AJ but ehhh not sure.


Sorry, meant raise and call the all in. my bad
04-29-2008 , 03:35 AM
its pretty close either way but given the texture of this board i think folding is probbly better to a raise than calling. there are just so many hands that he can have that yes we beat but also beating us pretty handily.

      
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