Villain was a typicall TAG whom I stacked a couple hands ago with two pair vs AK played solid the whole match


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($115.18)
MP ($178.44)
UTG ($100)
Hero (Button) ($224.27)
CO ($223.11)
SB ($107.18)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
UTG raises $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) K, 2, Q (2 players)
UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($23.50) A (2 players)
UTG bets $19, Hero calls $19

River: ($61.50) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $50 Hero?

I think if we call here he has AK or a boat most of the time. Fold. painful but fold.

Need 31% equity and you have 28% equity against QQ+, ATs+, AJo+, JTs, JTo, 22 which I think is a reasonable estimate of his entire value range (maybe not JTo since he's UTG).

He maybe c/calls the river with that range some of the time (AJ, AT) I guess. And I bet his bluffs aren't quite that large. Plus I don't think that he chooses this board to bluff all that often (although maybe he triple barrels here enough to give you 4-5% equity, but even then you're just barely breakeven). People agree that he doesn't triple barrel this board all that often?

I fold here. Just too marginal of a spot imo.

I would like to know your opponent's stats in order to make a better decision... I think raising JTo, JTs from UTG is too wide of a range for most NL100 players so I would definitely discard a straight here.

So you're most likely facing AJ+, QQ+, 22... Your equity is not good enough so it highly depends on your read and the kind of player he is...

Against a solid TAG I fold the turn, there is really no reason to continue.

If I have a good read on the player and he is very loose and aggressive I could decide to call the turn. In this case there is no way I'm folding the river. If I call the turn I just have to call the river.

call b/c the tightest range still has KQ in it. if he has you then oh well

no way he bets that for value when any ace beats him.

yeah i missed this first time around. probably a fold

what about the tilt factor I mean i stacked the guy 2 hands ago and eventough he is just a solid Tag I felt the need to get in a pot with him ( with the intention of calling down lighter)

am I overestimating this?

if he is solid, yes. few regs go on monkeytilt after losing a buyin, he might even be up for the day for all we know. river is an easy fold without really good reads, especially since the 2 paired.

The fact that the 2 paired on the river is completely irrelevant. The same hands that had us beat on the turn still beat us on the river but no new ones (unless we put him on 2x...)

So I assume you had a good reason and/or plan to call his turn bet. Since the river is a complete blank, that reason must still be valid. Therefore, go with it and call his river bet also. Even if your reason was questionable (like thinking that he was on tilt because you stacked him a couple of hands earlier or just because you enjoy seeing cards) the reason should still be valid. The river deuce does not change anything so call!