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Turn line. Check or bet? Turn line. Check or bet?

08-17-2011 , 11:00 AM
    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BB: $208.53 (208.5 bb)
    UTG: $60.10 (60.1 bb)
    Hero (MP): $258.33 (258.3 bb)
    CO: $57.65 (57.7 bb)
    BTN: $97.15 (97.2 bb)
    SB: $102.07 (102.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with 8 J
    CO posts BB OOP, UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $5.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $4.50

    Flop: ($13.50) 4 2 3 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50

    Turn: ($28.50) 5 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $18.50, UTG raises to $47.10 and is all-in, Hero calls $28.60

    River: ($122.70) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)



    Villain has vpip/pfr of 53/12 after 260 Hands, and is my current target. My image at the table is pretty tight (22/16), and recently I've shown good hands (3 of which against villain).

    I expect him to have many weak Ax hand on the flop, which I think he will call quite liberally, just to see a turn card.

    Question 1:
    The turn card hits all his Ax and puts another flush draw out there... Should I have just checked the turn to get a free card, or trying to get a fold for any non Ax hand is a reasonable strategy?

    Question 2:
    Is the call after his push also questionable? If he doesn't have any spade, then hitting is 3:1 on a pot offering 3.3:1

    How many outs is reasonable to count in this spot?

    Thanks.
    08-17-2011 , 11:11 AM
    Why are you making it 5.5x pre? 3.5-4 would have done the same thing without making the pot unnecessarily huge.

    I don't know why you're betting the turn, especially after mentioning he'll have plenty of Ax hands. Bet/call turn is burning money basically, just check turn and fold every river you don't improve on.
    08-17-2011 , 11:17 AM
    turn is a standard check spot, given board texture/pot size/opponent.
    08-17-2011 , 11:21 AM
    The main reason to make it 5.5 was to have him fold at least some times... he seemed to have never respected smaller raises before...

    Thanks.
    08-17-2011 , 11:23 AM
    Ok. Thanks for the hints. I guess I'll have to turn down my overall aggression on the turn...
    08-17-2011 , 01:37 PM
    check back turn. as you says turn card improves villains perceived range, and we dont want to bet/fold since we do have decent equity. if the river comes Xs, we most likely stack Ax/6x/some lower spade draws since villain looks to be brutal.
    08-17-2011 , 01:39 PM
    I'm in the same boat as OP, never know what to do in that spot. Against this opponent however, he's most likely gonna go to SD with you so you have to check back I would think.
    08-17-2011 , 03:34 PM
    i see two options:
    1. bet ~$10 on the flop and shove turn
    2. check the flop back

    cbetting and checking the turn guarantees that were gonna lose the hand unless the river is a spade. imo
    08-17-2011 , 07:01 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shlhe3
    i see two options:
    1. bet ~$10 on the flop and shove turn
    2. check the flop back

    cbetting and checking the turn guarantees that were gonna lose the hand unless the river is a spade. imo
    Not necessarily true, but even if this is our plan we should be able to deviate from it if we get a particularly bad turn card such as this one.

          
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