villain is a 22/11/2 tagfish over ~300 hands. he has been playing pretty straightforward, occasionally floats, but hasnt done anything crazy in big pots and hasnt been caught bluffing other than his standard c-bet after a PFR

Stars 100NL

Hero (SB): $230.05
BB: $100.00
UTG: $101.95
MP: $103.85
CO: $91.80
BTN: $134.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with T T
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3.50

Flop: ($8.00) 9 8 T (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BB calls $8

Turn: ($24.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($44.00) K (2 players)
Hero bets $20

flop and turn seemed pretty standard to me, agree?
river was a little sketchy and im not sure if i used the optimal line/betsizing/etc

I would c/f the river

On the river you rep exactly what you have and it's easy to figure out you're not calling a raise. Great line for value if you indeed had a J but without it seems -EV.

I've been trying the turn line for a while and I think it's okay. Not sure if it's the best though.

I like the play up until the river. I think I check/fold river.

I'm not sure the purpose of the river bet. The only worse hand that calls is a lower set or maybe two pair (9 10) makes a terrible call. Every draw got there and I don't think he folds a str8 and probably raises a flush.

always c/f'ing on this river seems pretty exploitable no?

i suck at these turn spots, i wouldnt fold for 10/24 but where do you cutoff what is a profitable call here?

I like this a lot

we always have 10 outs so even if you think hero is beat on the turn 100% of the time (which we obv aren't), then its a simple math problem to determine our immediate pot odds and then decide how much more we can extract from villain when we fill up.

i think the river is a much more difficult decision with regards to betting/chcking/folding/sizing/etc.

the player you describe is not betting the turn with two pairs and then calling your river bet. ever. ever. he has a straight and he's calling your river bet. i have no idea WTF you're trying to accomplish with a river donk... just c/f. and no, you're not being exploited.

open shoving river >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> this

I like this baby (note as a bluff , just in case it wasn't obvious)

are you sure? why couldnt he? do you expect villain to check back the turn with 2pr? or for him bet the turn and then fold the river getting over 3:1?





i have to disagree. i thought teh reasoning for my riverbet was pretty obv:
1) this villain is never ever bluff shoving with a one pair type hand
2) he is almost always checking river behind with 2 pair
3) there are a ton of 2pr/lower set hands in his range and not so many Jx combos

wtf? how in the world is it better? doesnt that guarantee that we only get called by Jx/flushes???? were never ever getting a straight to fold by repping a backdoored flush as the PFR



wtFFFFFF?! if youre serious, dont post anymore

yeah i like the open river shove.

it's pretty tough for him to have two pair or a set. 98/99/88 usually raises the flop, so you're looking at 97 and 87 specifically.

i could see some tags folding a J to a river open shove. doesn't seem too bad, actually.

why do you think a boring meowchow standard TAG would ever
1) just call the flop with T9 or whatever and then
2) bet the turn on a 4 straight board

this makes no sense and the describe player just does not do it like ever. and not only that, but your line also needs for him to
3) call river with two pair when it's impossible that you're bluffing or value betting worse


seems like way too many assumptions to me. much, much , MUCH more likely is that he called the flop with Jt, J9, 68, etc. and is now betting his straight; OR he called the flop with some pair (maybe even a total float) and is now bluffing; however, this choice seems rather unlikely given how small he bets on the turn

the great thing about the river open shove here is that he can never have a flush, but you can easily have one. and like you said, a lot of tags will lay down Jx there (i can gaurantee if the hand were posted from his view and you open shoved river, everyone here would be screaming for him to fold Jx 100%)

edit; i thought we were deeper at first, that makes open shoving less attractive.. still, there are tags who it would be great against (dunno if this guy is one of them tho)

yeah shpanko said different and i was very puzzled. he's obv not folding a jack and he has a jack a ****load of the time.

you could check/call a jack on the turn and river as well you know. Not really exploitable to check/fold a set here.

he seems like the wrong type of tag to bluff but mdom is better at bluffing than i am.

for the guys that think he has a J a ton of the time... if you assume that he would ALWAYS raise the flop with 2 pair+ then he cant have QJs...
so he has to J9s, TJs, KJs or AJs - thats only 11 combos total and i doubt he even calls PF with all those. not exactly what i would call a ****load of the time. fwiw there are 9 combos of lower sets, 15+ combos of 2pair, and also the small but signifgant possibilty that villain was on a complet float on the flop with like A8 or overs

i still dont think he he has to raise a set or 2 pair on the flop, and if he doesnt raise them, why would he check back the turn?
i agree that a flush is super unlikely for villain but why is so much more likely for hero?

j9s/jts/kjs/ajs ->he probably calls a lot of those hands the guy is 20/11. Wouldn't be surprised if he calls AJ/KJo as well.

sets/lower two pairs -> some of these will raise flop a good portion of the time, prehaps all. Why would he turn these hands into bluffs on the river?

complete float with overs -> its unlikely you cbet your whole range. Besides that its rare people fire two barrells after the fact into someone who definitely has some sort of hand. Its also really hard for him to have a semibluff float that doesnt have some sort of showdown value.

flush draws -> its plausable you check/called the turn with some sort of flush draw+pair hoping to stack his jack on the river.

lol when i read this thread i was like, lol y bluff so little??

what do you guys make of his weird less than 1/2 pot sized turn bet?

I think it's usually either value with a straight or value/cheap showdown with 2 pair, probably weighted significantly towards straights.

B/F turn. Then c/c river, sometimes c/c.

wat