Ok, if we have A2 and there's no spade draw on board and we inexplicably fired 2 streets already - is anyone gonna be like "no, it's okay, shove the river, he'll fold AJ, really!"

I will expound on the c/f...

If he has a brain, he won't bluff this river, won't try to push us off a chop, and won't valuebet worse hands.

Also if his brain is working, and he has a worse Ace, he's peeling the turn 1 more time, and giving up on the river.

You need to have a very spewy image to valuebet this river IMO.


Obv if villan isn't ABC 22/20 2p2'er we could valuebet, but that isn't the case.

what % of the time does he hold AJ.

i reckon at least 60%

In higher games against good regs against whom you will be playing often, it's important to shove hands like these for balance. Otherwise your river-shoving range becomes polarized to 2pr+/air, and it makes villain's decision easier. In mid-high games, this is always a shove, no questions asked imo.

What could potentially make this a c/f here is that balancing our range against someone who
a) probably isn't paying that much attention,
b) probably isn't half as good as a 25/50 reg, and
c) we may not see much of for a while
is totally unnecessary. So it becomes a question of pure EV. Will he call with worse? Maybe maybe not.

claunchy, theres no reason to randomly shove top pair hands on riv just for balance or whatever.

merging your range is dumb unless its +ev

balance in general is overrated, you don't have to make your range blah value betting hands/blah bluffs in a particular situation for balance, you just have to have your opponent think that you are capable of blah vbetting hands/blah bluffs. you can attain this by vbetting thin in other spots that are +EV anyway -- now your opponent knows you can shove thin, so doing something for balance at that point is pretty silly

Haven't read the thread, but this seems like easy shove. If this isn't a spot to value bet then there isn't any.

edit: How is shoving here "thin". He's 23/20. That's all we know. He could never have a worse ace........NEVER!!!!!! hahahahhaaahafh

I'd almost just always shove river unless I have a very specific note on opponent.

It's even more exploitable if he doesn't.

Why? What hand range do you put him on that beats us? I think AT/A5s/A4s/TT puts in a raise somewhere, as does 65ss/54ss. In my experience, people with their stats like 23/20 (VPIP closer to PFR than most) tend to be more aggressive. Probably because whatever it is that makes them prefer to raise preflop over calling translates to wanting to bet/raise postflop. I think this makes it more likely that he will bluff a busted draw. Yes, I agree that it's incorrect for him to call the turn with just a flush draw, but you'd be surprised at how many people would do it. Though, I'd expect a raise earlier, not always though, considering that a 9-high flop is better to bluff with a flush than a double broadway flop. I think all and all, I like a shove, with shove ~ C/C > C/F.

I can't think of a single reason to do anything but shove. c/f is lighting money on fire.

Even though we are ahead of his range, he's very rarely bluffing the river... We showed alot of strength, and everybody loves to bluffcatch this river, which is why I wouldn't do it against a thinker..

I'm not saying checking is the line, just saying if we do check i don't think we can profitably call a shove.


edit to add: he doesn't have to raise 65ss or even 54ss (though many ppl do)

showdown tax son.

Nope. But he is likely to fold splits and obv FDs. . AJo is likely to 3-bet pf, and there are almost as many combos of A6-A9s as AJ in any case.

exaaactly...

c/c only with a read

Good post

If you're villain and you have AJ, do you check behind river when checked to?

half pot

carrotsnake,

i watched your free video on leggopoker.

correction, i made it thru 4:30 of it.

your response demonstrating a complete lack of understanding, a total dart at a dartboard mentality of wtf do at every spot, does not surprise.

this is probably the easiest shove in humankind

my baby lives on

evg, <3. I care man, a lot .

you're pretty much a tool. carrotsnake is an excellent player and a pretty awesome dude.

jk3a, are those 200 hands datamined or played? If they're played, what's his image of you? I think it's close and could be convinced either way depending on the dynamic.

evg, stfu and come back when you can discuss hands with arguments and without personal attacks.

terp, to be fair, I make lots of mistakes. and yes, I personally would shove the river, but no, I would not as jk3a, cuz I recall him being a large nit who didn't 3 barrel that much. Maybe thats changed, whatever. I don't care. Evg wins, I do play bad.

wow, no need for the hate evg...

fwiw, i shove here because i feel a set/2pair is raising the turn, so i think he shows up here with AJ a lot, i could be wrong though, c/f is bad imo, c/c is meh...is villian betting AJ here?? maybe not because it might be a bluffcatching hand, but he might call our bet, so i prefer that

pretty solid advice here.

you could value bluff his AQ but c/c is best.

evg


you need a villain