Villian is a tag 20/16/2 playing numerous tables. Im playing similarly, we've not messed with each other so far.

His line is super strong. Is he bluffing/value betting worse on the river to call?


Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): $102.00
SB: $158.70
BB: $41.70
UTG: $103.35
MP: $103.80
CO: $98.50

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with 9 8
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($4.50) 8 2 4 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, BB folds, UTG folds

Turn: ($9.00) A (2 players)
MP bets $7.00, Hero raises to $20, MP calls $13

River: ($49.00) 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $35.00, MP raises to $76, Hero calls $41

The check raise screams value because you're getting 4-1 to call, but you only need to be right 20% of the time, so i think there are enough times he's doing this with AK or AQ, keeping the pot low on the turn and treating the 8 as a safe card where he can extract value from any other A calling except A8. And don't forget the times he could have 87 and 89 (rare, but still a possibility)

he almost never has a strong A here and wouldn't c/r the river with it anyways. after limping and then playing the hand like this you have to be beat a VERY high percentage of the time. He could have a weaker eight (although there aren't many of them) but he could have a stronger one or a set. If you guys don't have much history and haven't been battling a lot then I would say let it go now.

oh and make sure to raise PF OTB. Limping is bad

PF sucks. His line looks sooooo much like 22/44, maybe A8s (only one combo of that though). I guess you've gotta call since he could have 87/86/89 sometimes, but does he really bet/call the turn with those? Prob not. Tough spot for sure. I don't really get the turn raise either tbh.

Sorry, thought it was deeper for some reason

this also

i call, with the exception of A8 what did he get to the river with that he's c/r? Its not like he had an 8 and a flush draw given that the 8 of spades is on the table.

HEN, uh what about 44/22?

Tough spot, some weaker 8s, I don't know if this type plays aces up like this against us, or even a weaker 8, more likely the second one still though.

Don't cr turn, that was weird...

Good price to call, but meh...fold

why is A8 it? Why would he not play 44/22 like this?

Sorry, you're right, I'm being dumb. He plays 22/44 like this a ton too. Turn and river play for a set seems standard in a limped pot. A8 too possibly, but yea, definitely a lot of the former.

i considered that but why would he play them scared on the turn? 53s is the only thing he's really got to be scared of. Turn is such a terrible bluff spot that he's got to know we're not folding a nut flush or 2pair here to a reraise.

HEM, he's not playing it scared on the turn, it's a limped pot, shoving over our raise looks too strong on the turn.

Edit: Even if he was playing scared because of 53 (narrowing his range too much maybe), the paired river action makes this even more clear then of 22/44.

When he gets raised on the turn on a fairly dry board, if he's got a set he can either a. 3-bet right there, or b. call and c/r the river. I don't think he's afraid of 53s, I think he's just taking one of two possible lines.

I think we can agree that the villain is basically always doing this for value right? So he either has a boat or 8x and pretty much never Ax (unless he's really bad).

i agree but with the exception of a pure bluff, what part of our range raises the turn and folds to a push? Not saying i'm not wrong. It just seems like he wouldn't play the turn scared or feel the need to trap here either.

i can't put villain on a worse 8 and it may make this more of a fold than a call and his check/raise is obviously not a bluff.

Yeah i see your point. Its not that 22/44 are very likely, its just more likely that he played these hands in an unconventional manner than the odds he's holding something we beat.

Actually in a limped pot, shoving over our turn raise folds out almost our entire range, no? b/c and then c/r seems like a very good play on this board with a set, seems great for value.

k you take the lead on this one (i've already proven i'm not thinking clearly ). Put yourself in villains shoes, limped pot you bet the flop and get called, you lead the turn, get raised. Whats heros range? What part of that range folds to a push?

I would call for odds... you repped the A on the turn which may have caused him to get tricky, but that rep was unlikely because of your PF and F actions.

And raise PF.

HEM, if i'm in villian's shoes after hero's turn raise, I narrow his range to Asxs, aces up, a set, 53, possibly a bluff with the turn A, though meh with that last one.

My thinking is that with a dry board, a good value line is to call and then c/r river for value. Shoving turn seems very strong on this dry, limped pot, but isn't that horrible with the turn A, even against a good hero like us.

Both lines are good, I just like the first one better. Just my two cents.