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TPTK vs. flop raise on really crappy board TPTK vs. flop raise on really crappy board

03-20-2011 , 08:31 AM
I have this guy marked as a lag, he's like 31/26/8.3 (3b)
he only folds 39% to cbets and tries to make plays at pots all the time

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($102)
iopq (UTG+1) ($130.40)
CO ($163)
BTN ($117.30)
SB ($116.90)
BB ($250.75)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) iopq is UTG+1 A J
1 fold, iopq raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: 9 8 J ($8.50, 2 players)
BB checks, iopq bets $8, BB raises to $23

there's a few options:
1. 3b/get it in/hope to be up against a draw or hope he had some random air and folds
2. call flop, jam safe turn (not T, Q, 7 or heart)
3. call flop, call safe turn, decide river
03-20-2011 , 12:50 PM
Well you forget the option fold.
If i give villain a range of 88-JJ,QTs and all combo draws you have
27% equity (17% if i remove TT), so unless he is c/r a lot with air, i am folding
on this flop.
Stack sizes are generally horrible for a shove, cause his calling with have dominated, so only viable option instead of fold is calling and reevaluting turn,
though you have to keep in mind that a lot of bad turns card are in the deck
(T,Q,7, and hearts are 21 combos so will get such a turn a lot).
03-20-2011 , 02:00 PM
Flop is a fold imo..

point is even if he is raising KTo here

Hand 0: 58.485% 57.88% 00.61% 573 6.00 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 41.515% 40.91% 00.61% 405 6.00 { KsTc }

you dont have to odds to call
03-20-2011 , 02:21 PM
thoughts on checking back this flop? Not sure how often he will be c/cing here
03-20-2011 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_Ferus
Flop is a fold imo..

point is even if he is raising KTo here

Hand 0: 58.485% 57.88% 00.61% 573 6.00 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 41.515% 40.91% 00.61% 405 6.00 { KsTc }

you dont have to odds to call
according to this brilliant stove I should go all in
03-20-2011 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
according to this brilliant stove I should go all in
its just one hand...

I mean you have 58% against his semibluffing range
which isnt great..

+ he has a value range

= you dont crush his range
03-20-2011 , 04:49 PM
i think you should fold because i expect your image to be quite nitty and therefore i doubt people are calling loosely from the blinds vs your mp opens. hence a lot of the hands he could be semi-bluffing with, he wouldnt even be able to have.
03-21-2011 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
i think you should fold because i expect your image to be quite nitty
lol, why? I have a very high vpip/pfr (26/20) which is higher than 90% of the regs
except villain is one of the 10% of regs that is higher, so I'd expect him to have lots of draws
03-21-2011 , 11:48 AM
fold.
03-21-2011 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
lol, why? I have a very high vpip/pfr (26/20) which is higher than 90% of the regs
except villain is one of the 10% of regs that is higher, so I'd expect him to have lots of draws
ive played a bit vs you i think and you were quite nitty/straight forward. not saying its bad.
03-21-2011 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
ive played a bit vs you i think and you were quite nitty/straight forward. not saying its bad.
it's just downswinging 20+bis made me think everyone has the nuts all the time
so after having the first winning session (winning more than 1BI) this year I'm finally getting my balls back

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($54.25)
UTG+1 ($106.70)
CO ($127.55)
BTN ($100)
SB ($162.70)
iopq (BB) ($140.65)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) iopq is BB K 5
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, iopq raises to $10, BTN raises to $24.50, iopq goes all-in $140.65, BTN folds

Final Pot: $165.65

iopq wins $165.65 (net +$25)

BTN lost $24.50

this is the first time in over a year that I 5b bluffed successfully in 6m
03-21-2011 , 12:58 PM
fold.
pick better spots to stick the money in.
03-21-2011 , 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
it's just downswinging 20+bis made me think everyone has the nuts all the time
so after having the first winning session (winning more than 1BI) this year I'm finally getting my balls back

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($54.25)
UTG+1 ($106.70)
CO ($127.55)
BTN ($100)
SB ($162.70)
iopq (BB) ($140.65)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) iopq is BB K 5
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, iopq raises to $10, BTN raises to $24.50, iopq goes all-in $140.65, BTN folds

Final Pot: $165.65

iopq wins $165.65 (net +$25)

BTN lost $24.50

this is the first time in over a year that I 5b bluffed successfully in 6m
well going after successful 5bet bluffing spots might be the cause of at least some part of your 20 buyin downswing, no?
03-21-2011 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
BTN raises to $24.50
cant say how bad this is
03-21-2011 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
well going after successful 5bet bluffing spots might be the cause of at least some part of your 20 buyin downswing, no?
some part, yes, but by learning when to do it correctly I could expect some positive improvement in my winrate
not just from the bluffs themselves, but from people being more suspicious of me and getting it in lighter against me vs. my nuts

because I haven't done it in 2010 at all, and that's definitely a leak if anyone actually has notes on me
edit: that's not true, some guy actually got away with 4b bluffing me four times in a row before I actually 3b/5b 66 on him
but still, 4bing me almost atc was really profitable until I got mad enough to do something about it
03-21-2011 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwilcox
well going after successful 5bet bluffing spots might be the cause of at least some part of your 20 buyin downswing, no?
Yeah seriously, I went through a weird tilting phase where I assumed people were bluffing way more than they were pre, and spewed off many buy ins.

At 100 & 200nl you really don't need to 5b-bluff very often at all, even 4-b bluffs I reserve for people who I know frequently 3-b light and even then my 4-bets are value mostly (80%? who knows..).

p.s. I'd fold flop in the hand in OP.

      
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