Villain = 45/5/1.5, Wtsd = 17, called flop very light

shove? c/c?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($254.39)
CO ($108.25)
BTN ($126.30)
Hero ($99.00) AJ
BB ($109.40)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players)
1 fold, CO calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.5, 1 fold, CO calls $4

Flop: 2 8 J ($11.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $8, CO calls $8

Turn: 8 ($27.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $18, CO calls $18

River: 9 ($63.5, 2 players)
Hero

bet more on turn. as played c/c

Isnt their more value in betting so he can call with his Jx/9T type hand?

Edit: Def bet more on turn...he will call all day with Jx and it sets up stacks better for the river.

agreed, bet like 21, 22 on turn.. on river Im not sure whats better between c/c'ing or betting. If we are betting are we calling a shove from this guy?

i think thats why c/c is better, because with these stacks if you bet you will be getting really good odds to call a shove but will probably not be good very often

edit:actually the 9 is a bad card

prob bet the 9, c/c a non club 2

plz don't check this river, wow. he is too passive for us to expect him to bet any J and I guarantee he will call with more than just a J here. I say ~40

yes, we're calling a shove but we'll rarely have the best hand. given the action and board texture I really don't think we have too be very concerned with him shoving the river. if he does, then nh wp gg fk me.

well the c/c picks up the bluffs from missed draws but i think you are right just because the river is a 9 but you realize even if these stats are over a reasaonable sample size (which they prob arent) 1.5 AF for a 45vpip is aggro?

yeah, c/c picks up the bluffs but I really don't think he is going to bluff often enough for checking to be profitable. I see what you're saying about his AF, sample size, and correlation to vpip. a 1.5 AF may be high for 45vpip but that doesn't mean his river AF is high, or that he is aggro in this type of spot. ime these types aren't aggro in this type of situation. they usually get aggro when we're checking several streets to them, or we check back the turn after cbetting flop. he may even check some Js that he will definitely call with if we bet. plus, I think if we check and he bets we are beat more often than we are not.

Yeah this river sucks for c/c, just bet like 1/2 pot and maybe he calls with a 9.