Villain is aggro/good winning reg playing 28/21. I have a solid image, not getting too out of line.

Obviously there is a lot of draws he will barrel the turn with but will he really follow through w his bluffs that often on this river? If the flop wasnt twotone I think I would like a shove 2 get him of his overpairs and stuff but on this board I can see him making a lot of light calls. So what is the weakest hand U would call in this spot?


[converted_hand][hand_history]On Game, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12367222

Hero (SB): $210.55 (105.3 bb)
BB: $197 (98.5 bb)
CO: $269.95 (135 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A T
CO folds, BTN raises to $5, Hero calls $4, BB folds

Flop: ($12) 8 T 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($30) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($74) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $64

probably c/ring flop some of the time, but not folding top of my range.

As played blockbet river around 35-40 bet/fold

god, this is terrible.

His sizing on all streets is on the bigger side and even tho he is aggro since you have a solid image I can't imagine him thinking that you have a draw very often and it looks like he is going for big value. It is tough folding TPTK in this spot but unless I have more info about his river sizing I fold.

Also since he's a good aggro reg I think that he would know that his river bluff doesn't need to be sized as big to accomplish the same thing.

i think it's a fold but this may be exploitable

+1

god, i cry at his river sizing.

Why cry @ river sizing? Also, not folding.

his sizing will be value way more often than bluffs ime, and thin value becomes way less likely. i'm not folding too, but the sizing makes me not happy about it.

i'd super insta turbo call this river vs myself and most regs.

+1 to this, i highly doubt opp expects us to fold river when we call flop/turn here. Also given his sizing we now dont beat any of his thin value bets.
Id probly fold here but i think its really close, and if i pick up a read that his barrelling these boards down then i adjust.

give reasoning why ?
seems like when we call flop/turn here we gonna be calling river here a decent amount right ? which makes for a pretty terrible spot to bluff.
Also do you expect him to bet nearly pot w/QT/KT on the river here.... not imo.

Never folding.

i don't expect him to v-bet this big with worse tens, but i do expect him to follow through on enough bluffs. we don't look super strong either and AT is like almost the best hand we're percieved to ever have here, would take quite a bit of a read for me to fold.

also people are so aggro these days and bluff in way worse spots too, can't give villain credit for having that specific line of thinking.

river is a snap call. flop c/r is good.

You're either way behind or way ahead imo as he never has thin value here like Tx, I think AT is definitely at the bottom of my calling range vs this sizing, in practice I think I fold most of the time and this is definitely exploitable.

name a better hand than AT you have here.

the sad fact is that calling river is actually a big mistake vs a lot of regs.

what hands should villian expect us to fold on this river though

Typical CCS (crycallsituation) Folding TPWK when all draws bricked?
dont sound like a good idea...

But then the size screamvalue...

When calling you can always take some nice notes ^^

fold river.
overpair combos of AA-JJ (24 combos) that he is doing this with way overweight bricked flush draws.

I just dont think most regs bluff this river that much, we will just have a 10 so often and he probably expects us to call like every time w a 10. And with this sizing he is not very likely to be Vbetting worse either although if he was bluffing he would probably go big too.

Interesting. It's about 50-50 now regarding posts. Although this is such a standard hand.
It's probably unsolvable without further reads.

To people who are check-raising the flop: are you calling a shove/3bet if he decides so?

This should be obvious (i.e. of course)