Villain is running 19/13/3.3 over 400 hands. He is raising c bets around 9% so far. Give your thoughts about flop and river play please. No recent history between us, but he might view me as somewhat laggy reg
Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $334.90
Hero (CO): $215.00
BTN: $282.95
SB: $204.75
BB: $200.00
UTG: $203.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with J K
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15.00) J 4 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $10.00, BTN raises to $30, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($75.00) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($75.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $45.00, Hero calls $45

Both streets are pretty standard imo. Only conceivable hands that he would take that line with are AJ, A4s or air.

or backdoor clubs if he thought hero doesn't fold turn often enough

villain doesnt expect us to fold with that sizing so i fold river

yes river is a fold....

This is a really neat spot since it's kind of a leveling game.

This is a really horrible spot to bluff especially after checking back the turn. And that's a terrible bet size for bluffing. So if this ever isn't value your opponent is either really bad or really good and also thinks you're quite good.

Given he's 19/13 I'll just assume there's zero chance he's good. And since it's hard to have this river improve anything, I'd call.

Also, if he was good enough to realize this is a good spot to bluff he'd also realize he's missing a ton of value with this bet size since any hand you called the flop with that calls 45 on the river is probably calling 70 on the river as well.

Just looks like a bad player making a bad bluff.

Probability of him bluffing and probability of him having a real hand on the river are both pretty small, but given the fact that he'd 19/13, i think we should. He might be bluffing on the river just because he's bad.
Actually the more i think about it the more i'm convinced that the flop is a fold. These guys just don't raise with a worse hand here often enough for calling to be profitable.
Do you agree?