Villain runs 26/20/3.67 (flop AF: 2.56) over a good sample. Shamefully, I have no notes on him. My impression is that he is a good regular and a little more aggro than the average.

I think most people will say that this is an auto push, however I want to propose a range for him, see if you guys agree with the range, then hopefully get some good discussion on what seems to be a very thin spot IMO.

Proposed range of villain:

{77,55,AsKs,AQs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As6s,As5s,As4s ,As3s,As2s,KsJs,KsTs,JsTs,9s8s,8s6s,75s,6s5s,6s4s, 5s4s,AQo}

Against this range I have 42.6% equity
What do you think about this semi-common spot?

During the hand my first thought was "would he raise this much with a bluff?" This might be very bad and it might also be because I just moved up from 50NL, but I want some other opinions....

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($46.50)
BB ($100)
Hero (UTG) ($109.10)
MP ($127.95)
CO ($141.65)
Button ($102)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($12) Q, 7, 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $8, 1 fold, CO raises to $31,

ya I usually call here and c/shove non spade 6/9 turns. his sizing in this one is rly scary though :F

How are you playing? Reads on MP?

I mean if you're a nit and MP is a fish then this is probably the world's easiest fold. If you're lagging it up and MP is a nit then this is probably the world's easiest shove.

All in all I'm probably shoving since folding is no fun.

ton of draws + facing a raise from one idea too aggressive opponent = shove

I don't have many hands on MP but he seems like kinda LAG reg.

I appear laggy but its only 30 hands and we haven't even seen a flop as the PF raiser yet. If he has long term stats on me I will appear tighter than the average regular but not completely nitty (~20/15)

Yes, this is the standard way of thinking, but he would have to have some pure air in his range for this to definitely be good IMO.

Do you agree with my proposed range?

If he thinks you're like 20/15, MP is laggy and he's bombing the flop then I'd probably be fairly happy to let go of the hand. You're probably not cbetting light, tight UTG range, cbetting into two players, minimal fold equity/he'd be more inclined to just flat with draws, etc. Large raise size is also nice to make sure you don't just call and get scared off on a bad turn.

But I again can't really fault shoving. It's tough to make sets and you can always draw out on 75s!

Call, and not close.

I know that my own raising range as CO contains mostly semi-bluffs and sets, and a very small % of air.

Tons of draws? I count 5 outs, 2 if we are up against a flopped set.

I think he has some type of combo draw like always so either get it in now or call and lead safe turns

I actually think calling is pretty much the worse option here because of his raise size. If he ever has a bluff, he's buying the pot on a spade and not putting another cent in otherwise. If the assumption is he never has a bluff, then folding is probably correct.

I disagree, even if it's definitely a call it is still very very close.

But we're only flipping vs. combo draws and when you add the chances that he already has it locked then we're not getting the best of it at all.

I'm surprised that your second option hasn't generated any discussion. since we would have ~1PSB left on the turn if we call, are we lead-shoving on safe turns?

HUH???? 2 outs against a set? You mean runner-runner right?

If we call and value bet a safe turn, WHAT IS HE CALLING WITH THAT WE BEAT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

(draws?)

Yet another problem with calling is the time he is semibluffing something very weak like 89hh. We stack off to him on 3 'safe' outs and fold the best hand on 9 'bad' outs. We just basically give him a free 12 out shot at our stack or the pot. I see zero rationale behind flatting this size of raise.

Yeah I didn't note remaining stack size well enough in my initial post. My vote is just shove flop. Calling sucks.

in the range of hands you assigned villain, you put in 8 combos of hands that beat us, a few combos of hands we're splitting with (other AQ hands), and about 20 different combos of spade draws. Villain's not betting the turn with any of his draws and we would have 1PSB left. I think shoving here prob. isn't as horrible as it seems if villain would never bluff the turn nor river with a whiffed draw. (I'm pretty sure not that much worse ever calls us.. however vs. villain's range and tendencies I'm not sure of a much better way to play this short of making your fold or shove decision on the flop)

think it comes back to this and I totally agree.

Well, i would never consider calling on the flop so yes, I want to make a shove/fold decision on the flop.

I think I shot myself in the foot by not taking notes on an opponent who I have >300 hands on. If I had some notes then I would consider a call on the flop if I know he can bluff missed draws.

I think you can add some % "pure air".. and here it is. Definitely good.