sexiest part of this hand is the river inducer

haha, I'm always in such great moods at 9 am in the morning! Anyway, for those hands craig.

Hand 1- I can actually see the check there, but (simplistically), when we bet we're being called by any ace, some K's(I would assume KQ calls here depending on the player, not saying its right, but if you assume some K's call at least say that one does). Assuming you make a fairly decent size value bet(almost full pot works here since even though you discount most Kx then, alllll Ax call). So the value of a bet here vs his range thats doing anything is basically pot. The thing is, you want the value to be greater or be getting value from a greater range if you check, I'm not so sure he's ever bluffing here(its like just a terribad board for it, since your probably checking some Ax thats never folding etc etc.) but you can probably say the amount he checks is equal to the amount of Kx folds you get if you bet(missing value from both). If he bets with Ax and you c/r, he's probably folding unless you have some pyscho image, you do gain more value from exactly AK, and maybe more from some other Ax hands, but he's also betting less then full pot for sure with most any Ax hand(to try and get crying calls from Kx). This one is certainly close cuz it has the most metagame etc. behind it, but the fact is that if I wanna set up metagame I want it to be aggresive, not don't vbet light vs me. that might be a personal thing though. You obv have to check hands this big sometimes or else I guess he could steamroll you, though I doubt that happens

The other two are way more simplistic imo.The second one I actually don't get the raise oop aginst a guy limping the button. Its a realllly weak hand and apparently you don't know how he plays if your asking how this should go down. You should know if he's a spazzy bluffer or passive bitch. Considering he limped the button, your missing tons f value here from Ax that checks behind as well as probalby Kx and god knows what else. People who limp the button are just by definition passive until they show otherwise and trying to play tricky vs them is silly.

Hand 3, I dunno man. The leads are obviously fine, but what exactly is he gonna be bluffing here after you show that much strength? Again, probably read based if your gonna do this. The only good thing about checking is you def stack Kx vs maayyyybe just a call if he has Kx and you bet. but if he has Ah, he's 100% checking behind river imo, and what other hearts do you think he has that are unpaired? And any other pair is definitely snap calling a river bet, but checking behind again. So its like, is the value of pairs + maybe lone Ah snapping you off > chance of Kx not stacking off. pretty sure it is. Without other reads you've given us you just have to base your values off assumptions like that. I'd bet pretty close to pot fwiw

Either way, the value of 1 and 3 is def debatable and you can actually stox or whatever you want it out. Its going to depend on assumptions you make about their calling/bluffing ranges in both cases.But based on just std play pretty sure checking is gonna be worse in both cases. Plus checking is pussy!

cashout curse is hitting me hard.

cashed out like 60% of my online roll this week for various things, steadily dropped 10 buyins in 9k hands so far this month. Good thing its only 1/2.

Great post, thank you very much. I like your thoughts a lot on hand 2 (K8 raise def is not std for me, so I probably just lost a pot to him). I wish I had more reads for hands 1 and 3 but I just marked the hands in HEM when they happened and I just happened to go back and look at them from the past couple of weeks so I forget everything I was thinking at the time (be a cool HEM feature if you could make a note and mark the hand at the same time imo). Everything else you said obviously makes a ton of sense.

So yah back to the drawing board, finding good spots to c/r for value isn't as easy as it seems...

we've played like 20-30 hands so far and there have been 2 big pots. one hand i triple barreled a QJ5dd 2c 7d board and he c/r me on the river. other hand i called a 3bet w/ QJs, flop was KQx i call a cbet and a turn bet on a blank and river a Q. he jams river w/ AK.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $208.00
Hero (BTN/SB): $481.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN/SB with J 5
Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($12.00) T 2 J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB raises to $26, Hero raises to $56, BB calls $30

Turn: ($124.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero

i was ready to get it in on the flop but he flatted for some reason and now i'm not sure what to do on the turn.

Given the QJ hand I would peel one off since he is prob calling that flop 3 bet with a hand we are behind to very often and never folding to a jam.

Why are you 3-betting the flop though?

Jesus carrot wrote an essay. Must read later obv. It's like free coaching! Thnx Danny!

you're probably right that flatting is better. i don't play much hu and i'm not great at it. my reasoning is that i have not played w/ him enough to know whether i can call down UI but i thought there is a chance i induce some sort of spazz on the flop + i'm never in bad shape. basically i guess i was just taking the easy way out. looking back flatting is prob better.

I don't mind a 3bet cos its unlikely he flats big jacks preflop and its unlikely he raises J9 on the flop. And there is a thousand draws to go by. If he is good the reason he flats the 3bet is because your 3bet size is never a draw and is either a big hand you are comfortable felting or a pure rebluff, so he does not feel a need to protect and lets you hang yourself if your bluffing.

I'm thinking of selling action in the upcoming FTOPS... I wonder if any of y'all would be interested? I think I'll be making a thread soon... should probably start posting strat in here again as well.

awesome post, totally did not see the thing about him limping the button in that hand and about how getting tricky vs. those types of villains is ******ed...see, I am even autopiloting my 2p2 posts....

3b is better if he is the type to jam with draws but otherwise flatting is better because if he's on a draw you fear zero turn cards and letting him bluff the turn is awesome, plus if he's bluffing air and a comes he thinks it's the perfect card to barrel so you get lots of money in when he's drawing nearly dead.

Tough players from 400nl+ cashing out and settling at 200nl - what chance do I have making a foothold there?

1+ buy-in more to lose and I can crawl back to the relative safety of 100nl, lol.

IPoker Network $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $495.20
BB: $313.65
Hero (UTG): $243.20
CO: $289.00
BTN: $294.75

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with A T
Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, BB calls $5

Flop: ($22.00) 5 8 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16.00, BTN calls $16, BB folds

Turn: ($54.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $40.00, Hero raises to $80, BTN folds

Final Pot: $134.00
Hero wins $131.00
(Rake: $3.00)

minraise imo

1/2 are good, 3 is very bad imo.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($489)
Hero ($434)
UTG ($489)
CO ($422)
BTN ($775)

Dealt to Hero Q J

fold, fold, BTN raises to $12, SB calls $10, Hero raises to $52, fold, SB calls $40

FLOP ($116) 8 4 4

SB checks, Hero bets $64, SB raises to $156, Hero raises to $382 (AI), SB folds

Hero shows Q J

Hero wins $426

speaking of river c/r-es...

mp opens, i call 22, btn calls (200bb deep all)

flop 2KQss mp checks, i bet, btn calls, mp folds

turn K i bet, btn calls

river 9s i check?? no? yes?

btn is relatively unkknown seems a bit donkish though not really good. mp is good, image is a bit loose but ive been giving up on alot of flops.

duh

ohh wait 200 bbs deep i'm not sure

i like a small bet

stack to pot ratio on the river? you could just jam if its <2.

jamming would be way too big, lets think, pot is like 9 on the flop, i bet 7ish, so turn pot = 23, river pot = like ~55ish with like 150ish behind or so.

I like c/jam then because he bet/calls with some hands that he might not raise with and he probably doesn't bluff raise much

I think donkish players are going to be checking here a ton with top pair type hands and betting all better hands like flushes and JT that got there on the river. How can a c/jam be good?
I would just bet/fold there as a default against an unknown.