I have 2 examples where I need help to run the math to decide if that move could be successfull:

This is all NL100
# hand1, I am in the BB:
UTG limps, MP limps, BTN iso-raises $7, Hero want to 3bet (bluff?)

So basically we all know that the button has a very wide range for isolating the limpers, so let's assume he's folding to 80% of 3bets.
How often does this kinda move have to work for me, means how often does the button need to fold for me to be profitable?
(lets assume I have air and I will give up on the flop when called)


# hand2, we are CO:
UTG fold, MP raises $3.5, CO flat call $3.5, BB 3bets $16.50
flop: 285... BB cbets $28 into $35.15... we missed the flop and want to shove and make him fold his 99, TT, AK, whatever..

How often does this move have to work?

Why do you ask how often he has to fold when you assume that he folds 80%?

OK, here´s the math:

1) Including the dead money and the SB there are $9.50 in the pot. If you raise to $21 (3x his raise) you are laying odds of 2.2:1, that means you have to succeed in ~69% (assuming that you never ever win the pot if Villain calls you):

9.5 / 21 = 0.45 (=> 0.45 : 1)

100 / (0.45 + 1) = 69%

2) I assume that MP folded and the pot is HU, correct (why the hell do you cold-call a raise from MP and then cold-call a 3-bet from BB??)? However ... in the pot are $35.15 (preflop, where does this amount come from?, it should be $37 imho ...) + $28 = $63.15. We shove $83.50 (assuming 100bb effective starting stacks), so we´re laying odds of 83.5 : 63.15. This means, we need Villain to fold like ~57%:

63.15 / 83.5 = 0.75 (=> 0.75 : 1)

100 / (0.75 + 1) = 57%

- Tack -

Wtf at hand 2. No way anyone will fold a pair to you here and please don't play preflop like this

thanks for the math guys..

Hand 2 was AQs and we flat called because we didn't want to face a 4bet of the UTG opener, so flatting is fine here, AQs plays pretty good in multiway hands.

It's too strong to fold against a BB that squeezes often, so we see a flop in position.
Yeah I know, cold-calling calling a 3bet and c/shoving the flop could lead to him thinking that I'm bull****ting, but whatever, I don't fold AQs here.

I just needed a hand example, so whatever.
This calculating from hand 2 makes check/shoving pretty profitable against weak/tight opponents I think. Especially with a few backdoor outs.