the guys stats were like 19/17, im thinking this is kind of a shove/fold deal because i figure the stuff im beating is draws mostly since hes unlikely to be raising a board like this (esp 3 way) as a bluff. the hand im worried about is AK obv, it would be rare for a tag like this to have a 2

what do you guys think?

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $34.00
Hero (UTG): $353.70
MP: $142.10
CO: $210.30
BTN: $156.00
SB: $201.50

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, CO calls $7, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($24.00) K 2 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $18, CO raises to $48, BTN folds, Hero ????

I actually think villain can have AK a lot here.

If you want to get it in, perhaps crai a blank turn.

edit: reason being because your hand looks a lot like AK, and raising doesn't accomplish anything more than calling and betting the turn would if you don't have a king. Raising would pretty much give him a ****ty price to draw for 9 outs when you're most likely 3betting the flop.

Shove.

He would 3 bet AK preflop and not cold call with any hand with a deuce - right?

So he prob had a FD or is bluffing a mid pp.

nh

Tag regs love to bluff these flops imo.

Agree with the shove here. Assuming you c-bet a lot (as you should), this is a great board for him to semi-bluff or even airbluff.

this is the worst possible board for villain to raise a flush draw.

1) not really

2) villains r stupid

you think theres a lot of air bluffing happening 3 way from a guy with reletiverly tight stats?

elaborate on #1 please.

i would raise/fold this flop with alot of hands fwiw and i have pretty tight stats

elaborating on #1

a K22 flop doesn't hit an utgs range that great. he could have a TP/overpair hand but more than likely he has something that missed. an underpair, AQ, QJ, whatever. he pretty much never has a deuce.

so your FE is awesome and the paired board pretty much does nothing to your FD equity if he does call with AK.

if he has KK well **** it.

fair enough i think weve established that shoving is probbaly a good play here

i shoved, he had AK

checking hsi stats now he ended up being like 17/13 on the session so i guess he was more passive etc that i thought but i wasnt to know at the time

meh. make a note that he doesn't 3 bet AK vs an utg raise...move on.

i still think the shove is good though vs most regs.

OK,

I agree with the point you're trying to make.

However...

assuming villain does have a flush draw:
a)raising gets hero off of all hands that missed/don't like that flop (lots of PP. AQ/QJ/sc etc.)
b)when hero has Kx, AA, he's likely not calling, but 3betting the flop effectively pricing villain out of his draw.

My point is that once you call here, villain is not continuing with the hands in group A anyways, so hero checks, villain bets, hero folds. I don't expect hero in this hand to be 2 barreling air anyways because there are essentially no turn cards that change the board. (tl;dr = float)

That's why I think this is a bad board to raise a flush draw on. This is assuming your opponent can't read souls of course.

if you decide to get it in, i'll call/check turn. villain will do the work for you with wider range then his flop ai range.

if we assume he's bluffing quite a bit why the hell are we shoving?

bah, somebody else realizes not to turn our own hand into a bluff

well said!!!!!

Not to mention he has put 1/3 of his stack already he is not going anywhere this hand. I would like KQ better if he pushed in making more likely he had a FD then.

Standard shove there.