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Should this be a snap fold? Should this be a snap fold?

09-26-2015 , 05:35 PM
[IMG]Merge - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $48.30 (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 17)
BTN: $29.55 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
SB: $54.67 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
Hero (BB): $20.10
UTG: $36.46 (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: $25.00 (VPIP: 27.87, PFR: 20.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 188)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 8 Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.25, fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) Q J 8
Hero checks, BTN bets $29.30 and is all-in, Hero calls $19.85 and is all-in

Turn: ($40.30, 2 players) 5

River: ($40.30, 2 players) 3

BTN shows T 9 (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 43%, Flop 78%, Turn 91%)
Hero shows 8 Q (Two Pair, Queens and Eights)
(Pre 57%, Flop 22%, Turn 9%)
BTN wins $38.06[/IMG]
09-26-2015 , 05:38 PM
There really was not much of a dynamic going on at this table , felt it could have easily been someone : A(on tilt) B(flush draw) c(mis-click)
09-26-2015 , 07:30 PM
real weird i would have called too maybe it should be a fold though since you have to win every other hand here and with a shove like that maybe they are bluffing every other time to win .60 cents lol
09-26-2015 , 08:54 PM
Yeah i agree, I think what really put me over the edge was how easy it is to mis-click all in on carbon when entering a bet size.
09-27-2015 , 03:58 AM
I'm closer to snap call than snap fold. I wouldn't actually snap call because I'd look at it and be like "wtf is that; that's weird". But then I would call.
09-27-2015 , 09:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
I wouldn't actually snap call because I'd look at it and be like "wtf is that; that's weird". But then I would call.
Made me chuckle. I also agree, I'm clicking call here.
09-27-2015 , 11:41 PM
I don't think it's a snap-anything. But, I do think it's a fold.

You are basically getting 1:1. and even if you're good now, there are a ton of draws you have to fade. (without running numbers) I just don't think you end up winning enough times to balance it since you have almost no re-draws. You have four outs to fill up and that's about it. It sucks folding two pair. But I think it's the right play.
09-28-2015 , 05:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_lose
I don't think it's a snap-anything. But, I do think it's a fold.

You are basically getting 1:1. and even if you're good now, there are a ton of draws you have to fade. (without running numbers) I just don't think you end up winning enough times to balance it since you have almost no re-draws. You have four outs to fill up and that's about it. It sucks folding two pair. But I think it's the right play.
Even this being true, it's tottaly fear-biased. You have way too many card that don't fill up anything that more than justify a 1:1 call here.
09-28-2015 , 06:37 AM
it's a call every time. folding would be a terrible mistake.
09-28-2015 , 06:55 AM
Pot flop yourself

As played shrug and call.
09-28-2015 , 07:13 AM
Def calling, why check flop though?
09-28-2015 , 09:54 AM
Ok I ran some numbers.

If we assign villain a range (that I believe is reasonable) on the flop of 88+, suited connectors 54+, AXs, any two suited cards 8 or higher, and non suited broadway hands we end up with here at 69.2% vs villains 30.8. So, I was wrong about the equity. I still struggle to see any non-nutted hands that villain can jam into a pot that size with. So, I'm still not sure I can find a call in game. But I know I'm the minority on that.
09-28-2015 , 10:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_lose
Ok I ran some numbers.

If we assign villain a range (that I believe is reasonable) on the flop of 88+, suited connectors 54+, AXs, any two suited cards 8 or higher, and non suited broadway hands we end up with here at 69.2% vs villains 30.8. So, I was wrong about the equity. I still struggle to see any non-nutted hands that villain can jam into a pot that size with. So, I'm still not sure I can find a call in game. But I know I'm the minority on that.
I dont get it. First you assign a reasonable range to villain, then you say uou can't find a range. I think you have to make up your mind
09-28-2015 , 10:26 AM
I'm saying that we can assign a range that is somewhat reasonable and get equities. And, for the sake of analytics and learning, that's useful. In game, however, I'm not sure I could find a call.
09-29-2015 , 12:24 PM
I would snap call here vs unknown. Some fishes do some random **** like Jam Ax with no draw or Jam Bottmo pair
09-29-2015 , 08:22 PM
now that I'm thinking of it and reading some replies, my mistake was not betting the flop in which I'm sure I would have folded had my oppenent shipped . Thanks for the discussion

      
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