15/11 raises CO in 6 handed game, huge fish calls in SB, I call with 33 in BB,

Flop 3AK two tone checks through
Turn is To I bet 10 into 12, raised to 28 by the 15/11, fish folds

3bet turn > Call turn and lead river.

I'd prob call and c/c the river tbh. I doubt he's calling a 3-bet with worse but he might v-bet the river with worse or check down better depending on what card hits.

So call turn & c/c river > 3-bet turn

KT or TT specifically, maybe QJo? tbh i dont feel that great about felting here

eh now that i think about it. QJo is very likely.. hmm.

+1

folding turn is better than 3betting turn.

call and donk/fold river bad here?

i think his hand range is likely: TT, QJs, AA, KTs, AK, KK in that order with the first 4 more strongly weighted.

If he's smart yea that's a good range. Prob just call turn and c/c riv I guess, would feel like c/f river if he bet anything significant but I would end up calling.

I believe the turn is a call.

His line looks pretty much like TT or QJ. AA might check the flop, but 15/11 nits don't usually get that tricky. AK and KK probably bet the flop way more than AA does, simply because he knows he can get value from Ax. I believe the times he has KT/AT (although rare) combined with a random bluff % make this a call.

Now, as for the river....

Everyone is saying c/c, but honestly, I think that's the 3rd thing we want to do. If the river pairs the board, I really like a c/r. As stated before, it's unlikely that he has AK/KK/AA (even moreso if the board pairs any of these cards). However, I won't completely disregard these hands. There are 16 ways to make a combo of QJ and only 6 ways to make TT. Let's just say sometimes he does infact have AK/KK/AA, so we'll say if the river pairs, he has a straight 16 ways, and a boat 8 ways. I think this is a good enough argument to c/r the river if the board pairs, since he's going to bet it with both hands and would have to fold his straight more than 1 out of 3 times to make it EV-.

Now, on the other hand, what if the board doesn't pair? As sick as it is, I think you have to c/f. Nits aren't known for being tricky or getting out of line. Your turn bet is strong, yet he still raises it in a 3way pot. I just don't see him bluffing enough or having KT enough to make a call profitable. Obviously, this depends on the bet size too.


Corsakh, any reads on his postflop play? Is he weak?