No reads on UTG.

c/f readless

Oh and fold pre.

def bet bigger on turn, and lol @ above - folding pre is ridiculous

On the turn he has 2x pot. I bet just under 1/3 of his stack with the intention of folding to a shove.

So you're comfortable betting more and calling it off here?

I also say more on turn, and more on flop as well, so river becomes an easy shove. What you're actually doing when betting small so you could fold to a shove is losing value - he's gonna fold to a river shove on a blank a decent amount, whereas when the shove is like 1/5 pot he might just call with A high or something. Yeah he's gonna have a better hand a good % of the time, but you think he'll call you with a worse hand a higher % of the time, that's why you're value betting. So don't hold back.

lol @ folding pre as well

well id bet like 16-18 and decide - you have really good equity vs his range on this turn, and whatever he calls with for 12 he calls with for 16-18 (imo). you can still fold to a jam if you dont think he's going to be shoving over it light.

yeah, i guess i fear putting him in a shove/fold spot a little too much and miss value as a result.

I think you played this hand well on all streets (unless you check-folded the river!). I'm in the process of writing a program for precisely this type of post-session analysis (I wrote it for myself as I wanted a tool to review my sessions). I analysed a few billion datamined hands to get a sense of how different types of players play each spot, based on their position, the prior street aggressor and their relative hand values. Having done that I wrote a program to combine board textures with the frequency of how each player type acts and a stochastic monte-carlo type EV calculator. I won't bore everyone with the details, but in this spot we are nicely ahead of villain's range and we can either check to try induce a bluff from some of villain's many busted draws or just shove for value. Check raising (or calling if he shoves) is slightly higher EV, but there's very little difference between the two (also given how wide an unknown player's limping range is, I disagree that one should fold pre. I thought raising to isolate was good especially as weak players who limp often call to a riase as well, and by raising the SPR is uncomfortable for someone who starts with 60bbs as he doesn't have implied odds to play small pairs/suited connectors etc).

The first chart shows villain's range before he acts on the river:


Top left chart shows how his preflop range (taken as a polarised range of 14%-24%) hits this board before he acts post flop (kind of like a Flopzilla analysis). Note the large number of flush and straight draws. The red chart below that shows the frequency with which the average player calls IP. The green chart (on the top in the middle) provides the weighted distribution of his action x the way his preflop range hit the board (togteher with the new turn card). The middle lime coloured chart shows the distribution with which this player type calls a turn bet, and the blue chart shows his range with the river card, and the prior actions. All of this is then summarised in the bottom chart. Hero is behind about 30% of the time, but because villain has around 40% of busted draws hero's weighted equity is about 50%.

It is EV +ve to either shove or check raise according to the program as shown in the chart below:


In terms of bet sizing, I actually thought the bet sizes were nice given that UTG only had 60bbs to start, and I can't see how Hero can fold with top pair unless villain is an extreme nit.

Please let me know if you think this type of analysis adds value.

TP vs Random UTG limper with 60BB = BETBETBET. If you are going to isoraise this guy with JT you should be playing for stacks when you flop tp.

I dislike your sizing vs this type of player. He is peeling all sorts of stuff on this board so bet, and bet big.

You have to bet the river and b willing to call his shove. Like Focus said. Once u flop top pair u have to b trying to get stacks in. With the line you took, I can see any good player bluffing that river against you

Since you bet half the pot on turn villian could put you on Axs or Kxs. Even if he puts u on a Jack or overs I would think he would still have to bluff the river. So I would bet about 22. It looks weak enough for him to shove over, which as hand played is good for us

bet flop bet turn and c/c river. this must be an old hh or else how the **** are you playing on FTP?

the ****. this block of text must be some sort of method to sell your little 'program' which i think to be completely honest is useless and even if not, totally overkill.