Villain in this hand is GauchoBluffs, he's a reg that runs like 25/16/2. His stats seem kind of weird but he's definitely an ok player. Not a run of the mill reg but plays pretty straight forward as far as I can tell. I don't have really any extensive history with him that I can remember, so this should mean that he views me as another reg with whom he has tangled little. I'm running like 26/21/4 but really haven't done anything dumb yet surprisingly.

I feel like with his flop check and turn call we can narrow down his hand range a ton. He's got to bet sets and two pair on the flop because we're deep and he wants to get the money in. He should be betting overpairs 100% but there is of course the possibility that he chose to check those back on the flop for pot control since we're deep (not a great play but certianly a possibility, gives deception etc). On the turn when he just calls I feel like we can eliminate QQ and QT from his range. So this means that on the river his most likely hands are one pair hands. It's possible he has some Tx hands in his range but to be honest I don't know how light he really 3 bets. I haven't seen him three bet that much this session so even though I open a lot of hands I'm not positive that something like JTs or ATs would be in his 3 betting range, possible, but not all that likely imo.

So to me his most likely hand looks like AQ, or a missed draw. Obviously I lose to most missed draws so I need to c/r, and if I'm going to fold out all his one pair hands I need to raise enough to make it unprofitable for him to call, so I check-raise all in. I guess what does my hand look like from his perspective? FWIW I don't think that this villain specifically has seen me make any big plays like this in the past. Also his WTSD/W$SD numbers over a few thousand hands are: 22/48 over several thousand hands. So what are you guys' thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $406.45
SB: $334.90
BB: $400.05
UTG: $197
MP: $208.20
Hero (CO): $642.40

Pre-Flop: 7 8 dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, BTN raises to $24, Hero calls $17

Flop: ($51) 6 5 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($51) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

River: ($131) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $72, Hero raises to $578.40 and is All-In

Also what are you guys' thoughts on flop/turn lines? I was planning on a c/r flop, shove turn if called on flop line. He checks behind flop though so this is what I came up with, thoughts?

I guess your hand can look like Tx although he might expect you to bet the river with trips but it probably doesn't matter tbh. If he has one pair he's probably folding. As far as his range is concerned I think Tx is a decent part of his range that pot controlled the flop but his river bet sizing seems more like that of a queen than a ten so I think this is probably ok. I think this needs to work like 60% or something so given a range weighted a little bit more towards qx and busted draws and assuming he almost always folds Qx this should be fine.

Meh, I'm not keen. Unless you have a read that he bets thin, I think the only Q he's betting on the river is AQ. I think KQ checks for showdown value (what would you call with that he beats?) and probably doesn't 3bet this when deep anyway. So you only hope to fold out AQ (which also might not 3bet) and a few busted draws, but I also doubt he bluffs the river - until your raise it looks like you have a Q yourself. He might have a full house here (I agree he should play it faster but that doesn't mean he will), as well as ATs, JTs, KK, AA which I doubt he folds.

The trouble is I don't think you're repping anything strong. It's a weird line, as you'd nearly always value bet the river with a strong hand, because you'd expect him to check back so often. So he might make a hero call with AQ or something weaker.

FWIW, I'm not keen on preflop OOP, especially since you're not sure of his 3betting range, but maybe I'm too nitty.

I don't really like this based on that I feel that he could be playing 10x for pot control on the flop. I'd much prefer it if the river bricked because then you could confidently know he has a 1 pair hand.

If your 78 was offsuit, I'd prefer 4betting and getting it in pre

edit: He should be folding 10x here a lot, but I wouldn't give him credit for this without a little more history, and obviously we're not getting rich from bluffing tag's off trips.

I think this is a decent spot for a checkraise on the turn, but I think your flop and turn lines are fine. Problem is Qx is winning this pot when you bet the turn and brick the river (unless you river line here works, in which case it's possibly the only way).

edit: turn is a good spot for him to delay-cbet AK/AJ, in which case you'd make more money by checkraising the turn

I doubt he has Tx that often when you combine the the likelihood of him holding a ten given the two on board with typical 3bet ranges. His hand looks a lot like missed draw/QJ+/KK+, all of which he folds. Tx probably takes the same line too, I guess if we assume he's only doing it with sooted cards then there are very few combos of it he can have (two each for T9s/JTs/ATs, or six total (though granted this might be too narrow of an estimation), versus 6 combos of QJs/KQs, 12 combos of AQo, 12 combos of AA/KK or 30 total that we expect he might valuebet that we beat).

wrt your edit: Nobody folds Tx here, ever, because the odds that this hand played out so weirdly when shpanko happens to have coolered the **** out of trips are probably about as big as the odds that he's doing exactly what he did here.

p.s. b/3b this flop or 3 barreling AI if he flats is sexy as ****. imo. I mostly like picturing villain ****ting his pants when he has AA and you take that line.

I don't think he's ever bet/folding AQ on the river because I don't think he's that good tbh. I could also definitely see him checking overpairs on the flop because he'd be scared of getting check/raised.

I guess because of that I don't like the bluff, and I think you can raise to like 260 and it work just as well.

Also, once you miss the flop check/raise I'd just check the turn to him as well, but I don't think it matters either way.

And I agree with this too.

Meh, I don't think you have to be good to bet/fold AQ on the river, I think you have to be like "oh it looks like top top is good here" and the bet and then be like "oh wait **** my life" when you get shoved on and it's almost 1.5 buyins more to you to call with one pair (yes I know it's two pair but it's not) when villain could def have trips or a boat.

Not vs shpanko though

Maybe I don't play with shpanko enough to see what a crazy LAG he is

He's not a crazy LAG per se

I think T is a big part of his range.

I was thinking less in the sense of combinations, and more in the sense of hands that c-bet combared to hands that don't c-bet.

I think that KK+ is c-betting often, because there is tons of value from JJ/QQ/99/10x, and a zillion other hands that aren't straight draw/flush draws/sets that shpanko doesn't want to cream all over. I'm also under the assumption that most air is betting because villain has position, is deep, and has the opportunity to own hero in all ways imaginable depending on turns/rivers(he should know hero's calling range is considerably wide pre given stack sizes).

I'm not saying your wrong, I just think that to say villain is never betting the flop with the given range isn't accurate, and should be weighted more towards hands that want to play pot-contol, and hands that are Qx and don't like the flop. I also think QJs is a very thin on the river, as the only likely hand to pay of would now be trips, or the 3 combos of JJ.

Also, I don't like bet/3bet on the flop because a good villain isn't raising a lead, and is shutting down on any obvious hit draw. Agree? Although bet/bet/bet would be a very, very hard call on the river for villain.

somebody do the math on how often he has to fold. I don't know this player but it seems like your a little tooo deep to be pulling this move.

Yeah, you're right.

77-99 are the same as JJ here once the river pairs the board.

He would probably only raise sets and air on the flop, so yeah we don't expect to get raised that often when we lead. But since 3 barreling is so hot, that's ok.

CTN, we're risking $342.45 to win $203, so it has to work 61%? of the time.

so he's got AQ/KQ/KK/AA maybe AT on the river.

There's 12 combos of first 4 and 8 combos of AT (probably safe to reduce to 4).

so that's 52 combo's in all, we need him to fold .60*52=32ish combos

so that's AQ/KQ/KK. I don't know, needing someone to fold KK on that river assuming they are never bluffing seems somewhat thin. I think he'll always call with AA or better.

Check_The_Nuts, why did you only give him made hands ont he river. Certainly there are a few missed draws that decide to fire here as well amirite?

this guy doesnt like folding IIRC, so yea, no go

i don't know this villain... i don't know why it hasn't been mentioned he can easily have hands like JTs, T9s, T8s though.

also, if you're going to do this - i think a smaller c/r folds out most of what you want to fold out.

I don't know this particular opponent so I can't say whether or not he's folding Tx but I agree with spivey that there are several combos of it in his range.

Also we have to be confident that he's betting his one pair hands on the river, I really wouldn't be surprised to see many TAGs check behind with hands as strong as AQ here given the board paired on the river.

Also you mentioned that a significant part of range that you want to fold out is missed draws, but just leading the river does so far cheaper (though you don't get his river bet), plus it's based on the assumption that he bluffs with them on the river, again I wouldn't be surprised to see Axs check behind the river.

Overall the c/r bluff is only superior to a lead out bluff when he value bets his one pair hands (and since he checked behind the fop his one pair hands are on average weaker than had he cbet), or when he folds Tx.

Even though the pay off of a river c/r is bigger (we get his river bet) I think a simple river lead may be more profitable - especially as he may check behind missed draws and is unlikely to re-bluff us as our line would still be consistent with a flopped set that went for a flop c/r. Additionally we can make a small bet on the river rather than a large c/r because we're only trying to fold out draws. Obviously the downside is when he does have a one pair hand.

i think a lot of people are overlooking villains bet sizing

u think he only half pots the river w/ trips?

I'm still not sure how I feel about the river but I think I'd probably b/3b the flop.

yeah, i dont like it at all. i like b3b flop too. Also, he has to suck for pf to be good.