ok, plz dont make fun of me, I just never bothered to really learn poker math.
Just wanna check how bad my "math" process on the table is.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $180.65
UTG: $108.50
MP: $196.90
CO: $40.00
Hero (BTN): $143.90
SB: $172.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 9 8
3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB calls $2, 1 fold

Flop: ($6.00) 7 Q 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

Turn: ($14.00) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $32, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $22

villain is weak, BE reg, doesnt get out of line too much. I think we can safely assume that his range here is very strong, totally dominated by sets, maybe like QT once in a while.

Once I saw the raise, I thought: ok, he has set like always. My outs are not scare cards for him and he will continue on any single one. I have 20% equity and I have to call 22$, so I need to make 22$*5 in order to breakeven (I will win once in five times). Im probably gonna make much more, cuz he will stack off almost always, but I need to win at least 110$ pot every time I hit. Hence, this is a call. I know this is not proper EV calc, but there isnt time to do proper calc on the table (or Im not able to)

am I doing it wrong?

thanks

edit: bold part is incorrect, I need to win 220$ pot every time I win, right?

seems good to me, altho i suck at poker math. obv fold the river when u make a pair

Edited:
8 outs is closer to 16% than 20% for coming in (just using the "rule of two" aka 2x8=16) how did you come up with the 20%? Your imediate odds are already good, you'd need like 28% equity if my quick math is right so with implied odds you can call this all day (if your assumptions hold true)

ah, ok, this is exactly why I asked.
I thought that I get to win 280$ pot, hence 140$ of his money, if I hit. I thought that I need 110$ of his money to be BE, so, if I stack him every time, I'd make 30$ of profit.
Is that incorrect?

as of equity, I, just to be sure, stoved it and I had 18%. But there is equity in tilting him, getting action in the future etc, I dont think those 2% matter that much and its easier to calculate if I know Im winning once in 5 times, instead of 5.215 times.

Heh you can just ignore my post before the third or forth edit, too drunk from football to think straight :P

quick calcs: win $105 left in his stack + pot of like $55 = $160 or so
we'll stack him 1/6 of the time

$160 / 6 = $26 or so
have to call $22 so it's a call unless he can fold the river sometimes

youre not going to stack him every time tho

you have ~20% equity on the turn. if he fires another 60% bet (say $50) on the river you call now $22 to win $78 pot size on the river + his third bet of $50 i.e. $22/$128= 17%
your have to call if you think if he will fire another barrel.

Turn is a check.

Vilain is weak you said and most of this kind of players don't fold on this turn what he had call on the flop.

As you have some equity on the turn and no fold equity, in this spot against this kind of player, it's a check.

he is weak, but a reg and I expect him to flat flop with vast majority of PPs and 7x and he prob. folds them to the second barrel.

Ok and I think Im doing same as you too often, and think this is a mistake because if you think about his all range, it's a check.

On the turn, now the board is really wet;

- Top pair, 2 pair and set will reraise you
- A lot of float KJ, JT and any J or T that he called flop got something now, str8 or flush draw and they will call. Your equity against a higher str8 or flush is not very good
- PP and some 7, they will fold

Do we still bet this turn?


Edit I missed read there is no flush draw on turn srry

turn is a definite bet, we have no sd value and villain is folding alot of hands.

checking turn sucks balls obv

Pot odds are 2.8-1 and you're a 5-1 underdog. But if you hit the str8 and he has a set, pot will be $78 on the river. Even if he calls a tiny $35 river bet, you'll be getting the right implied odds to call the turn.

So yeah, folding here would be a huge mistake.

Your exact equity against a set is 18.2%. Expressed in odds, this works out to be a 4.5:1 underdog. So clearly you're not getting the correct immediate odds but assuming he bets the river, even pretty small like 40 into 72, you'll be getting the correct price here. And given the line I think it's pretty obvious he has a big hand and will always bet the river (not the case on all boards).

Anyway bet/call turn is the correct line with position + 143bb effective stacks + as you have pointed out it's pretty unlike that a 6 in the river is going to shut him down if he has a set. J is a little more debatable (because "LOL I put you on AK") although he probably still pays on that river too.

Also this is the simplest case as there is zero chance we have the best hand right now, EV calculations get tougher when there's a possibility that a) you already have the best or b) there are reverse implied odds (e.g. you're drawing to a non-nut flush and it's possible he's semi-bluffing with a better flush draw).