Hi all,

I play at 0.5/1 NL stars and would like to explore the best way to play a QQ vs 4bet Preflop against a complete unknown with both of us having 100 dollar stacks. The situation is as follows:

1. Opponent raises to 3
2. I 3bet to 10
3. Opponent 4bets to 25

Let's take the widest range possible for this guy that I feel - please correct me if I'm wrong - anyone 4betting at this level on average is not doing this with more than the following range: 99+, AQs+, AQo+. Furthermore, people don't really 4bet then fold at this level, generally when they 4bet, they're willing to go all in.

In pokerstove, my QQ vs this range is 58:42, so I have a slight edge. This means that for every 100 dollars I stake, I win about 16 dollars. So my value from this hand is 16 dollars. If I fold, I lose 10 dollars. So basically by folding here I lose about 26 dollars of value on average. Not sure if I'm doing the right calculations but this makes sense to me. So in this sense, folding is a mistake here if this is the range I put him on.

Now, if his range is QQ+, AKs+, AKo+, then I'm only 40:60. So, if I call, I'll lose 20 dollars on average. In this case, I should fold every time, since losing 10 dollars is better than 20.

Now, if his range is JJ+, AKs+, AKo+, then I'm 47:53. So, if I call, I'll lose 6 dollars on average. In this case, it's pretty marginal whether I push all in or fold.

What do you guys think? Which is the most appropriate range to put an unknown on who's 4betting PF at 100NL?

You have a few options. Shove, jam, push, go to the felt, or go arrrr in!!!

Seriously though, people 4bet bluff at 100nl more than you think so being 50:50 against a range that calls plus added fold equity makes shoving ideal. Never call a 4bet 100bb deep by the way, thats just burning money.

You can't lose money by folding - folding has an expected value of 0. Other than that, just shove

Your not thinking this through enough, yet, you have put so much thought into it. Position, image, history, table dynamics all play important roles and when certain conditions are met their range becomes significantly wider, while rarely becoming significantly tighter (it is tough to get tighter then QQ+ AK, yet sometimes we can get it down to 22+ Axs+). I think people are 4betting more then you realize and if they are not you really should be 3betting a ton more and start 4bet folding and owning people more.

jam it in!

Hmm, very interesting, thanks for the replies - so the overall response seems to be that I should jam it in

I agree that with 100bb calling is bad here. Also, that's true, I do need to take into account fold equity, since that is an extra 25 dollars.

Hmm... ok what about JJ or TT in that same position, without a read on the opponent - i.e. complete unknown, just sat down

Yeah, AA-QQ, AK are pretty much auto-allins these days, unless the guy is very nitty or a fish who never 3 bets/4 bets without AA/KK.

JJ-TT- Now THAT'S tricky, and totally situational. It'll take more than a paragraph to detail that, but just keep studying and learning and you'll get a good feel for it. Some people play JJ-TT too aggressively, some to passively. On the other hands, its nearly impossible too play AK, QQ to aggressively at 100bb.

If you are not stacking off against 4bets, you shouldn't 3bet hands like TT-JJ. There is obviously some cases where this is not true, eg. if ridiculously tight UTG opens and 80/10 fish (who you know will call your 3bets with any2) calls, you could consider 3betting JJ and folding if UTG 4bets you. Also 3betting against 100bb stacks and then someone with deeper effective stacks cold4betting could be a reason to 3bet/fold JJ pre.

Anyway, if someone opens and it's folded to you, 3betting TT or JJ intending to fold to a 4bet is awful, unless you have reads that villain will peel 3bets very light but 4bet rarely.


You said people don't 4bet and fold at these stakes, but I don't agree at all with that. If people are not 4bet/folding against you, that probably means you aren't 3betting enough. If you 3bet CO/BTN open, I'd guess that at least something like 25% of their 4bets are bluffs and I'm expecting them to always 4bet/call at least JJ+ and AK.

Well, this is one problem with your analysis (another is ignoring fold equity). When doing an EV calc, always remember that folding has 0 EV. When you fold, you don't risk anything, and you can't win anything. No risk, no reward, no EV.

You don't lose the $10 by folding, it was lost to the pot the moment you 3bet. So it's not 'yours' at this point any more than the dead money from the blinds can be considered 'yours'. The EV of your initial 3bet has already taken into account the risk on that $10, so you don't need to include it as a potential loss in your analysis here. It's just dead money in the pot now.

Neglecting blinds, the pot will be $200 if you shove and get called. With 40% equity, you expect to win $80. Since you risk $90 by shoving, you are correct that shoving loses $10 when compared to folding if he always calls.

However, he will fold sometimes, and it doesn't have to be very often for your shove to show a profit over folding. How often does he have to fold? Well, you win the $35 currently in the pot when he folds, and lose $10 when he doesn't. IF 'x' is the probability villain folds, the shoving is +EV when:

35x > 10(1-x)

Solving for x yields a minimum required fold % of 40%. If he's folding this much or more, you still have an easy shove even though you're not in great shape when he calls. BTW, people 4bet bluff a ton these days at 100NL (assuming you 3bet a good amount), so your assumption about people never folding to a 5bet shove is pretty far IMO.

Not really. With 47% equity, you have a very easy and very profitable shove. You'll win $94 on average when called, while only risking $90. So it's already +EV without considering fold equity. You're basically flipping coin, but with a big overlay and a chance that he'll fold.