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QQ 200NL - Very confused by villains line QQ 200NL - Very confused by villains line

10-29-2015 , 12:27 PM
Villian seems like a reg based of stats but i haven't played 200NL in awhile so i don't have any real reads. I have recently been working on player a tighter style so he may have notes on me as spewy from the past but even still i don't really understand his line. Think my line is pretty standard. He looks a lot like 78 that was coutierfeited so i think river bet can be smaller. My real question is how he calls river, especially because he snapped in like less then a second. Flop raise is also little weird but river is what really has me confused. Is this guy on some other level i'm not thinking about or is this just bad by him.

Merge - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 208.21 BB
MP: 107.61 BB (VPIP: 28.97, PFR: 20.09, 3Bet Preflop: 8.21, Hands: 915)
CO: 75.3 BB (VPIP: 47.21, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 9.59, Hands: 326)
BTN: 44.2 BB (VPIP: 42.59, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 56)
SB: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 25.49, PFR: 13.73, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 52)
BB: 108.39 BB (VPIP: 23.48, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 2.73, Hands: 271)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 7 8 2
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, MP raises to 26.67 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 18.67 BB

Turn: (65.33 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, MP checks

River: (65.33 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 32.5 BB, MP calls 32.5 BB

Hero shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Twos)
(Pre 79%, Flop 53%, Turn 77%)
MP shows 6 7 (Two Pair, Sevens and Twos)
(Pre 22%, Flop 47%, Turn 23%)
Hero wins 128.33 BB
10-29-2015 , 03:45 PM
His thought process is "the draws missed, I have pair, and I need to be good 25% of the time, call!". You realistically only have a few combos of higher flush draws and many more combos of overpairs, so it's a bad call by a not great reg.

Most people would exploitably bet larger with their missed draws in your spot as well and the half pot bet is kinda screaming value with an overpair type hand, so it's even worse (unless he has a specific read on you).
10-29-2015 , 06:07 PM
would b/f flop
10-29-2015 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Blonde
would b/f flop
I agree with Monsieur Blonde:

Let's talk about your perceived range for a second. You raised UTG, got called in three spots, and bet on an extremely coordinated board texture. I doubt you pure bluff here regularly (possibly never), so you're really only betting good draws and TP+ hands on the flop. Combined with your UTG opening range, you're likely to hold NFD and overpairs.

And MP STILL wants to raise the flop. Seems like a mandatory fold to me!

FWIW, a few strong (25/50+( players advocate checking this flop with everything for balance, including sets, against very strong opponents.
11-01-2015 , 02:12 AM
I disagree with b/f here.

Does this mean we fold JJ+ on all boards in this spot like this?

348ccx?
9104ccx?
892ccx?

I don't think 3 bet calling is good, but folding is out of the question in my opinion. Straight draws and flush draws are there, plus he can be playing his position. Folding JJ+ here is weak no?

I don't mind your line and don't see how you can play it any other way.

      
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