Rush poker. Villain is unkown 25/11/0.67 over 88 hands.


Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP): $80.00
CO: $200.00
BTN: $532.60
SB: $339.55
BB: $214.15
UTG: $142.70

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with K A
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15.00) 2 6 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

Turn: ($35.00) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($35.00) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $63 all in


Tried to win the whole pot instead of splitting. He could have made the flush, but I thought there was little change he was better than the board. I think the stack size was perfect for this, as it puts great pressure on him to call hoping for a split, and doesn't allow him to try a re-bluff.

Since he called a flop C-bet with two clubs, I give him a better then random chance of having two clubs, but worse than random chance of having a 7. Let's say these two cancel out (maybe I'm being optimistic, but it simplifies a lot). So his chance of having 2 clubs is 9/52 * 8/51, and a 7 is 4/52, for a total chance of him beating the board of roughly 10%.

So 10% of the time I'd lose $63, and 90% of the time I'd win $17,5 (assuming he doesn't call if he's with the board), for an EV of +$9.45 above checking.

Is my logic correct? Do you agree?

PS: Before anyone throws the first stone, I play middle-stacked intentionally to avoid SPR issues with TPTK type hands.

wtf

you find a suitable tree... ill get the rope

so you're one of those guys hmm?

You seem to like math




Can you please explain mathematically why is better than playing full stacked please, assuming you are a winning player.


PS nothing wrong with shove I dont think. Most people would donk the river if they made clubs or had a 7, unless he knew you were agro enough to try something like this.

if you are smart enough to think you can make plays like this then why aren't you smart enough to play full stacked and be able to fold TPTK when necessary. you are saying "i don't like to fold" which is really saying "i am addicted to gambling and am unable to make the correct decisions because i am not investing in my opponents mistakes relative to my own, i am investing in making big hands and just going with them because i am a gambling addict"

also i don't really like the play because you rep nothing and if he is good he is c/c or c/s with all his hands that beat the board

If you play with 0bb you won't have to make any decisions at all.

ur shove is good, move on