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is this an ok fold otr? is this an ok fold otr?

07-12-2014 , 09:59 PM
as played i was planning to call down low board, however, villians line is too consistent in repping AA KK

though looking back his flop and turn bets are quite small and i imagine i would have bombed more with aa kk?

UTG is a nitfish

villian 27/20/9 104 hands
hero running 24/17 f3b 76

cheers

PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 203.35 BB
SB: 97 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: 120.95 BB (VPIP: 27.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 104)
UTG: 249.07 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 46)
MP: 95.47 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 115.25 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 8 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 6 J 3
BB bets 13.14 BB, Hero calls 13.14 BB

Turn: (51.78 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 26.7 BB, Hero calls 26.7 BB

River: (105.18 BB, 2 players) 7
BB bets 69.11 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 102.38 BB
07-12-2014 , 10:16 PM
He could be valuebetting AJ sometimes, can be bluffing and this is high up in your range, call seems good to me. The fact that you isoed over a limper makes it more likely that he is blufing, because he may be attacking your perceived wide isoing range.
07-13-2014 , 08:33 AM
Why did you call pre and why you wanna fold river? You are under repping your hand and its top of your range. Villian could easily 3 barrel AJ here since you wont have better hands on this run out.
07-13-2014 , 09:38 AM
Well anything but calling there seems bad tbh.. Some postflop aggression stats would be usefull too..
07-13-2014 , 12:18 PM
With AA (and sometimes KK) he would rather just call ur 2bet to keep the limpin fish in.
With other arguments mentioned ^^ this is a clear call to me
07-13-2014 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pilliapina
He could be valuebetting AJ sometimes, can be bluffing and this is high up in your range, call seems good to me. The fact that you isoed over a limper makes it more likely that he is blufing, because he may be attacking your perceived wide isoing range.
Don't know why Hero's iso range would be perceived as wide when UTG is a nit that decides to limp UTG.
07-13-2014 , 02:20 PM
When you have a situation like this where you often beat a decent portion of his perceived 3bet "value" range pre, it pretty much takes folding out of our options here.

Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
Board :: 6J367
PlayerEquityWin HiTie HiCombos (Natural:Reduced)/TotalRange
HERO44.542.73.7(1:1)/1326QQ
VILL55.553.63.7(40:28)/1326JJ-AA, [A]J, [AJ]
07-14-2014 , 10:19 PM
I know it's a small sample but QQ is dominating a 9 3-bet. You can't put him on specific hands you have to consider his range. I think folding an overpair in a 3-bet pot here is a big mistake. And especially after calling flop/turn you can't fold this river, the only possible hand this improves is 3 combos of 7's
07-15-2014 , 02:58 AM
I am not sure he 3bets AJ all that often but yeah, its nearly top of your range and a call
07-15-2014 , 04:42 AM
when utg is a nitfish the regular will rate our isoraise strong and will hardly bluff 3bet here (assuming the limper is not a bad player and the regular knows that). just saying "oh he has aj, snapcall" is wrong. given its top of range i would just call river fast.
07-15-2014 , 10:15 AM
Definite call. As mentioned you iso raised pre and your QQ is under repped, he could be value betting AJ maybe even KJs putting you on 77-1010 or worse J or just trying to bluff you off a weak showdown hand.


Equity Win Tie
UTG+1 49.97% 48.36% 1.61% QdQh
UTG+2 50.03% 48.42% 1.61% JJ+, AJs, KJs, AJo
07-15-2014 , 12:49 PM
surely if you make a hero fold like that you'd want to have a reason for doing so. I don't see any
07-15-2014 , 02:20 PM
It's not a hero fold, you will definitely be behind a good chunk of the time but agree with everyone else that these spots you got to just shrug your shoulders and call it off. You're going to be way too easy to play against if you fold here, i guess you can beat the occasional overplayed AJ/KJ type hand and i'd certainly expect a few triple barrel bluffs in a spot like this too.

Overall, call and don't beat yourself up if you see AA or KK.
07-15-2014 , 02:51 PM
it's definitely a hero fold if you have better <20% of the time here which applies to me and most other players I'd assume
07-15-2014 , 04:15 PM
AJ is not an overplay for villain in this spot. KJ is close and some kind of dynamics is needed.

      
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