Spew imo

probably not but i wouldnt remove from his range.

How does he get to the river with Ax? I guess he can have the 2 combos of A4s maybe.
I certainly wouldn't say the river bet is burning money.... Sure it is thin but I'm fairly sure he doesn't have hardly any 4x hands in his range. So if he has like 3 combos of 33, 1 combos of 44, and maybeeeeeeee like 3 combos of AK I only need him to call with TT-QQ half of the time for this bet to be +ev.

Also if riverbet is "burning money" I guess you are not betting AQ here either then?

I know he's a complete wreck right now. But does Tiger at 12-1 this weekend just sound too good to be true?

I have a question for the 200nl+ grinders, would you suggest to have the run it twice feature if you are taking a shot at 200nl ? I have a roll of about 11k and have rakeback.

gotta be pretty close

if he's just been able to find one positive thing in his swing over the past 3 days it's for sure +ev

how good tiger go from shooting +16 to winning a major in less than a week ?

i mean a 13+ yr track record is more meaningful than a bad 5 months. imo all it takes is just one good round thur or fri and we could see the old tigre.

the first major he played in since coming back, he shot a good first few rounds and then choked in the last round if my memory is correct, so i dont buy that argument. He also seems to be getting worse the more he plays.

he needs the hoes

who doesn't?

he probably is not full engaged in golf as he should be with all of his personal issues being out in public.

I don't know with how competetive the guy is I would imagine that when on the course he would be able to forget everything he's got going on. But than again no one is in the position to even remotely relate what he's going through.

I don't know I've considered sports like baseball and golf high variance sports. I mean in golf the difference between a 75 and a 70 can be so minute, I think it's very likely Tiger could just be "running bad".

he's def not "running bad". I'm a huge Tiger fan but he played terribly last week and it was nobody's fault but his own. He just appears to be a little low on confidence right now, even on the greens which is where he really used to shine. When you're just not making any putts a lot of times the rest of your game will fall apart because you feel like you have to hit the balls so perfectly/so close to the hole to give yourself any shot. Then you start forcing things/trying to guide the ball right at the flag and thats when the wheels fall off.

IMO he needs to slow down a little bit. He looks pretty rushed throughout his entire swing.

doing anything to get anyone to fold AA is just lolbad at 100nl. and I have foodfightafrika marked as a leaky semi-reg. he is not good and I doubt he ever folds better. he probably has AK or is surrendering on the turn so you're really either vbetting or bluffing him off something he's not folding. doubt your spaz shoving JJ on this riv.

he tanked down for his full timebank and folded with 5secs left. So i am pretty sure he folded better.

He can also play AK like this imo (certainly more than 3 combos). Biggest chunk of his range we need to worry about is is certainly TT-QQ. I think a combination of him having AK more often than you'd expect and him probably not calling down on the river with TT-QQ as often as you'd think (I'd say less than half tbh) = -EV river bet. I mean it's close no doubt and I dunno if you have any reads on his PF tendencies as UTG but if you include QQ in his flatting range it's only fair to include AK combos
As played I think hard, think hard and probably fold river because once again I probably expect more AK combos than you and I highly doubt he's turning much of the range he gets to the river with into bluffs eventhough he probably should

Trust me he'd tank fold any old pair like this because from what I remember he's looking for reasons to call not for reasons to fold so his thought process was probably...man oh man I have this small PP and he shoved river that's just odd I reaaaaaaly want to call

then this was a value bet obv

Did anyone watch ME day 1 last night? It just made me cringe all night long watching Oberstad. I was playing and semi-paying attention to day 1 so my details might be a little off, but she was berating people all night. She talked ***t to some ameutuer for "nitrolling" her with JJ on a T82 rainbow board to her shove (she had 99 and spiked a 9 on the turn.) Than she was being sarcastic when saying "wow nice call" when some guy (who she basically implied was a calling station in a earlier hand) called he c/shove with QQ on a 922 board vs her AJ.

I don't know much about her, I think she made back to back WSOPE ME FT's. Is she any good? Or was just running hot, because they showed her making some big mistakes.

Also, lol at Matasow. He played litterally every hand about as bad as you could.

Re. Tiger, he doesn't go from world number 1 to finishing 2nd bottom in an event through 'run bad'. His game mentally and physically is miles off and can't be corrected within a few weeks. Bet on him is burning money.

I ****ing can't stand Matusow...by far my least favorite TV pro. He sucks so bad, talks so much **** and just whines constantly. His behavior on HSP was unbelievable....DOUCHE.

I don't know much about Annette other than the fact that she looks like Shrek imo.

you do realize that given my hand + the board there is only 2 combos of AKs left and 4 combos of AKo left. So id say giving him 3 is ok since he will probably 4 bet or c/f the flop some non 0% of the time.

Yea i suppose the Axs is just the 2 combos of A4s. Theres also 2 of 45s, 3 of 56hh/57hh/67hh, and 6 AK's which all reasonably peel flop and turn, plus 33/44 for another 4 combos.

17 combos beat u and a shove on the river seems reasonable with all of them...

Maybe this is bad but w/o doing the math but i'd think he would call w/ JJ/QQ rather than shove, whereas AK seems like a much better shove.

youre talking about the best golfer ever as if he is some mini tour hack lol. After he won the 08 US Open on 1 leg I dont know how anyone can doubt what he is capable of on the golf course...

Like I said before the difference between Tiger being in contention/being a non-factor this week can be a very small tweak in his swing and just regaining a little bit of confidence on the greens.

You should read Matusow's book. Pretty awesome IMO and will help you understand him better.

Need to get a new laptop, only use it for school/poker. Suggestions on which ones?