I think you either missed the point of what he was saying or decided to pretend he said something else.

I don't see anywhere in his post where he discusses that AIEV is not a more accurate representation of a winrate. He just explains every possible scenario that a player can experience looking at AIEV and the emotions associated with each, demonstrating it almost always makes you feel bad.

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Yea your right, i just kind of dismissed it as another "i hate all in ev" post....while it actually is a good post and true statement.

not as boss as if i played in a purple suit/tie holding a candlestick!

On a stolen computer

yeah you don't have search very hard to find another person explaining that AIEV doesn't take into account the time they got set over set

zing.

putting in a full sunday for the first time in a while myself, gl to you

Watching football today, with only 16 games in an NFL regular season and teams theoretically being very closely matched for the most part, isn't there an insane amount of variance? So like I'm guessing too often coaches are fired/rewarded prematurely after one good/bad season without accounting how much insane variance there is that could cause one to be a playoff team/last place/whatever because of how small each team's "edge" is and how small the sample size of a season is. Random thought of the day, enjoy.

EV in sports is kind of an interesting thing too, I remember all the discussions about EV after Bellicheck went for it on 4th down in his own territory late vs Colts last year and people pointed out that it was better EV wise than punting.

of course theres a ton of variance, theres no way dallas goes from a top playoff team to last place in one year. Indy's sucking with virtually the same team as well.

Then there's teams like atlanta who have inflated records and really arent that good

Speaking of random applications of the concept of "EV." I remember during a "Moral Philosophy" course I took in college learning about utilitarianism as a basis for moral decisions. Now that I think about it, Utilitarianism is basically just assessing the overall EV of each decision as it pertains to every person the decision could affect and then trying to maximize everyone's EV.

yea and especially when key dudes on your team can get injured, which basically ruins your whole season.

also fml since I have aaron rodgers on my fantasy team and he left the packers game in the first half with a concussion. it's our league's first playoff week too.

yes there's variance but the Colts have a very different team this year. ATL is a good team--last year they didn't do well due to injuries at the RB position. The reason people underrate them is b/c their defense is very blan to match a dink and donk offense that relies on no mistakes and taking advantage of defensive misques.

didnt say atlanta's not a good team, but they're running over EV much like the jets this year. The jets have had a LOT of good fortune, they could easily be .500

Jags!!

Coming to LA?

I hope not, but I don't mind either way. LA Jags just doesn't sound as good as Jax Jags.

EV is everywhere!

I guess that's what DUCY is about

I mean a good example I guess is last year the Vikings ran above expectation so to speak, catching breaks early with a soft schedule, miracle TD on last play vs SF in a game they should have lost, etc, and after a winning start Childress gets a 5 year extension and then this year they run under EV and have a tough start, things not going as smoothly as last year, much tougher schedule, etc and now he gets fired and they owe millions.

google metrodome collapse...talk about variance in 24" of snow the past 36 hrs

deserved , i'm from MN and the vikings are in my top 3 least favorite sports franchises

+1

Seahawks make me can they please just not lose by 30 every week

the player of the year leaderboard is infested with stars regs. whats up with the ftp regs!!

rush/ ftp doesnt track anymore

+pstars regs play more than 2 hours a day. ftp regs, we're lucky to get 2 hours in.

i tallied my play this year, i averaged 1.75 hours per day.... so sad!

I probably spend that much per day looking at photoshop threads in nvg, lol

final table fools, turbo 10k on full tilt