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OESD on the flop - set on the turn on sick board OESD on the flop - set on the turn on sick board

05-02-2008 , 08:42 AM
Villian runs 18/18/2 over his first 20 hands

Party Poker $200 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (BTN): $213.75
SB: $198.00
BB: $103.79
UTG: $212.50
MP: $174.80
CO: $193.80

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with 6 6
UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17.00) 7 8 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($41.00) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $31, UTG calls $31

River: ($103.00) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $32, Hero ?

Comments on all streets appreciated.
05-02-2008 , 11:04 AM
check turn shove river
05-02-2008 , 11:38 AM
Why would we want to check that turn?

Good played imo, now raise.
05-02-2008 , 04:42 PM
flop is fine, no need to make him do something spastic, turn is good we get value from alot of draws here.

shove river/curse the gods.
05-02-2008 , 05:26 PM
No real stats on villain yet, but so far, no reason to believe he is not solid. Pretty unlikely for his UTG raising range to contain a 4c, and even a 9c has limited quanities in an UTG raising range, like typically only maybe 99, T9s, 98s (and most these hands are just betting the turn or check raising).

Really seems like he has some kind of overpair hand with Q through A of clubs, or AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, with the A or K of clubs. So the only thing you really have to worry about is being set over setted here I think, and that's just a cooler.

I'd really think his likely holdings end up being an A or K of clubs. He only has $81 of $200 stack in, and don't really think he's gonna be able to call a shove on this river. Maybe I'm wrong here, but it really looks like a blocking bet, and don't think he's gonna call a shove with worse (I dunno could be wrong here) but I would raise to something like $77 and try to collect some value in this weird spot. There are of course arguments that if he calls a 2.5x raise, he could call a shove, but just seems like a spot where I don't think he is playing for stacks with worse.

      
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