Villain is a breakeven TAG (-0.22 bb over 100k hands on PTR) that as far as I could tell plays very straightforward ABC-poker. Plays 20/18/3.5 - 82.2% cbet (16k hands, virtually all mined)

We have no relevant history.

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $330.70
Hero (BTN): $230.00
SB: $31.67
BB: $203.00
UTG: $200.00
MP: $250.05

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Q K
2 folds, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.00) 4 6 5 (2 players)
CO bets $8.00, Hero raises to $24, CO calls $16

Turn: ($61.00) 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $36.00, CO calls $36

River: ($133.00) Q (2 players)
CO bets $85.00, Hero ??


Flopraise is pretty std because it hits my range a lot more than his and he's gonna fold a lot. Plus I can rep a lot of stuff on turn and river. And I have 6 outs vs his likely calling range.

Turn I bet smallish to set up a bigger river bet and it allows him to peel lighter w hands that are folding river so there's some value in that.

River is weird. I think he has virtually no calling range, let alone a betting range except QQ but I block that. Most of the time he's gonna have some kind of overpair 77-AA that decided to blockbet but his sizing doesnt really make sense.

I don't think I can fold so calling is fine?. Is there any merit in shoving to get him off of Qcxc/KK/AA?

just call, its a busted FD mostly

Dislike turn bet. Calling is the best option given his perceived range once you get to the river.

You think it's a busted FD mostly?

could be a poorly played set. i dont know. based on timing i would make my decision but i might shrug/call.

I don't know I think a call here is really thin.

Why?

you only rep sets and flush draws.

Lol, that's a lot of combo's, right? i rep sets, straights, fd's and I rep 'm pretty well. What exactly do you think he calls me with when I barrel turn and river?

Well for one thing i think your bet on the turn is too small ( 42ish looks a whole lot better) and with the 2 it's such a bad barrel card. I mean you really think he is going to fold giving you credit for a 3?

You are forcing yourself to in more instances run a 3 street bluff when it looks like he's going to be calling you down anyway thus lighting money on fire.

I think this is pretty weaktight advice.

I have some 3s in my range and def 78s. I can def bet a set or two pair smaller on the turn looking for thinnish value w a 4-straight board.

What exactly do you think a straightforward nitty tag is going to call me down with? Or let me ask another question, what's the WEAKEST hand that he's calling with on this board vs this action?

I actually think this is a perfect spot for a triple barrel bluff. I was just asking about the river cuz its so weird.

so 4 baby cards make this a good 3 barrel bluff spot. You call him a break evenish Tag who raises pf and get raised on the flop turn with a board like this. He probably has a hand much stronger than you think. I mean a good portion of the time he is going to stack over pairs on this flop.

The 2 comes and you bet weak with your perceived range of sets going for value on a 4 straight board to get value from what?

4 baby cards don't make this a good barrel spot. The reads I have on villain + the fact that we don't have any crazy history + the texture of the entire board make it a good barrel spot.

You do realise that if he gets it in on this board, he is at best flipping right? So yeah, I think in fact that he calls w overpairs a decent amount of the time. What else is he supposed to do?

I bet turn weak because I think he levels himself into a call a lot. Something along the lines of: he probably checks his fd behind on river if he misses so ill call this bet, its not much anyway.

I thought you had no history with villain. While we are dissecting may i ask for a street by street agg stats out of curiosity

I have no relevant history w villain? It's not that we have crazy bluff history or whatever. From the hands that I've SEEN him play, he hasn't done any crazy stuff.

50/30/25

This is ridiculously FPS'y.

He's not bet/folding these hands on the river.