Party Poker $200 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $229.14
SB: $141.24
BB: $204.05
UTG: $23.98
MP: $220.75
Hero (CO): $233.49

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with K K
1 fold, MP raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BTN calls $18, 3 folds

Flop: ($45.00) Q 5 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $25.37, BTN calls $25.37

Turn: ($95.74) J (2 players)
Hero...?

Villain is not very well known. 28/12 over 25 hands, agg freq = 40%

b/f for $50?

b/c, u give him too much credit, he could have AQ,KQ,...

very close between bet/call and bet/fold.

i prolly bet/call usually.

b/c $60 imo

OK - for some reason I though I am getting value from just very few hands and checked. If you bet/call, what range are you putting him on, that's still a profitable call?

As played, what do you do on turn? What do you put him on?

Turn: ($95.74) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $92.74, Hero...

Once you check, you fold imo.

Super easy b/c turn. Failing that, I don't hate a crai.

It's not so much of "pick a range that I beat", it's more "pick a range that beats you" and there are so very few combos of that.

Pretty sure it's not "super easy"...but I'm leaning into it's a call after all. I attempted the ranges myself and it looks like this:

95 in the pot on turn, 186 stacks left. Betting 60. If he shoves we get

126 : 60 + 95 + 186 = 126 : 341 = needed equity 27%.

Next, toy around some ranges. Not many hands but he did flat a 3bet and call a cbet after all. First a range that's only value:

A range that's value + KQs, AQs:

So that's already a close call. Does a relative unknown overplay KQ/AQ enough to justify this range? Maybe....

A range that's value + KQ, AQ is a coinflip
But those KQo:s would need to be discounted heavily. Finally, a range that has value hands, TP hands and some (discounted) combo draws mixed in:

Reads or more hands would be very useful when deciding what to do.

Some follow up questions:

- since a) betting can put us in a close decision when he shoves b) it can put us in a difficult position on river when he just calls turn (is it an auto shove?), should we be making out life easier / hand more profitable by choosing an alternative line
- a) betting less or more on turn. If you bet/call, what is the optimal bet size?
- c) betting less or more on flop
- b) checking turn

?

Explain reasoning pls....

You're assuming the absolute top of his range at all points, which just isn't the case.

Equity vs QQ, JJ, 99, AQs- 32.4%
Equity vs QQ, JJ, 99, AQ - 56.5%

I think you definitely want to get it in here. I like bet/call, as he can't check behind a hand like TT/AK. If he's aggro, and floats in 3 bet pots, the c/r is an option too.

OK give a better range then.

How can I? It'd be pure speculation (though people still do it). The only information we really have here is that on the flop you had a statistically awesome hand in an inflated pot, that got slightly less awesome on the turn.

I you have no idea of what his range could be, I don't think you can say things like "super easy b/c" or "you're assuming the absolute top of his range" as you have no basis for that. Just labeling it speculation when you cannot think of a range is kind of a cop out IMHO. It's not like we have him drawing dead to his realistic range...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.474% 49.39% 02.09% 804 34.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 48.526% 46.44% 02.09% 756 34.00 { JJ+, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }

looks good. i lead turn, but as played c/r all in