Party Poker $200 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $200.00
BTN: $208.05
SB: $563.15
BB: $701.57
Hero (UTG): $248.00
MP: $86.30

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, SB calls $7, 1 fold

Flop: ($18.00) 2 2 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB raises to $28, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($74.00) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, SB instaraises to $80


Villain is 30/25 (132). A good, aggressive player.

My plan was to let him hang him selfes an other street, and rebluff him off his hand by representing QQ+.

What do you think when you see this?

check behind on turn and call river is what i would do given your read on this guy

your hand has good showdown value...what in the world are you doing??

i think you are crushed

if he is double c/r bluffing i would be amazed

but i would fold flop a lot maybe not vs this guy but dont bet turn

Why is he doing this on the flop? What level of thinking does he probably have?

I actually dont think my hand have any SD value because of his preflop range. I put him on mostly 22-JJ. Is it spew to assign that range for him preflop?

How the hell are we supposed to know???

the thing is, he's not going to turn those pair hands into a bluff by check raising. if he's check raising the flop, it's not with a 2, it could be with an 8, or air. if you think he has air, then your hand has great showdown value against his air. so check back turn, and fold to any reasonable river bet (if he's decent, he will know that you will want to call a bet with A high, meaning he will bet with a hand that bets you and will just c/f his air there).

edit: btw I fold flop because if he's a decent player he will also know that this is a horrible flop to bluff at.

We arent supposted to KNOW!. There are a probability that one of you may have experience with this situation, and can give me an advice. By beeing a lot in this situation, you can develope a good ASSUMPTION about how players like these are thinking in this situation.

yup

Coldi: This was the kind of answer I was searching for.

Lowrestling: I dont think he has air in this situation because of his preflop range. But I think he is capable of knowing that 33-77 dont neccessarliy plays most profitably by potcontrolling, but turn his hand into a bluff when the texture is good.

He represent 4 combinations at the flop but at the turn he represent 2 combinations. Or, could he have both called preflop, and turned his hand into a bluff with 87s/89s?? Or could he mix up with cc preflop with KK+? I just dont know what to think, but i believe he could profitably push most TAGs of this pot by playing like he did. Thats what I suspected when I continued at the flop.

Please comment my thought process.

Is it possible to make a rough guess what his preflop range might is?

peeling flop is fine but if you do anything other than snap fold to the turn c/r i think you are crazy, his line is absurdly strong and you have ace high...

he has quads, but you should have checked the turn.

I folded to the c/r

You think my flop call was good?

ya

If you think the flopcall and turn check is best, then I assume you put a lot of Ax and SC's in his preflop range?

check the turn and get to sd.

How often do you think he bets the river, and what max size should we call if we check turn?