Here is a spot I think I'm losing money on.

villain is a plain and cold fish, running at 54/11 over a short sample of 35h. Based on his nick he is likely from Sweden, if someone wants to take something out of this.


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $101.35
UTG: $101.00
CO: $87.35
Hero (BTN): $108.05
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with T T
1 fold, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 6 9 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $9, CO calls $9

Turn: ($28.50) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $20, CO calls $20

River: ($68.50) 8 (2 players)
CO bets $17, Hero calls $17



I doubt I can fold here because of the odds, but I rarely see him bluffing in this spot (assuming he is not only hitting buttons but thinking in a twisted kind of way, whatever).

Would the situation be any different, if the river is a 3h?

you need 21% to BE and I doubt you are always smoked here

what range do you betting on the turn against?

don't mean to be a nit but you only need to be good about 17% here.

i think shoving > calling >>>>>>> folding mainly because of his river betsizing. I just dont see him betting $17 into $68 with a 9 or T7 when he has only $54 behind. He way more often has a bluff (like KQss) or a weak made hand (like 65 or 78 or AJ or 55) IMO.

a shove becomes less appealing because more draws missed and less pairs are possible.



it would be an interesting spot if villain jammed river.

Snap he can have 87 6A who knows.

shoving the river sucks. Just because you are ahead of the majority of his river bet range when he bets that amount doesn't mean shove for value is good.

you are saying a donk whos betting that river smallish is folding to a shove and that play is more EV than just calling with an overpair here?

I am a little bit sceptic sir

i want to shove for value. hes a fish, he can definitely call with worse hands thinking that he induced this with his betsizing or that he has a pair and the fd bricked or whatever.
also as i said i think he has very few better hands with that betsizing.

This is probably a bad example as the bet size in fact leaves us little room room to fold. How about him betting in the 25-35 area? What, if he shoves?

In regards against what range I'm betting on the turn: For value against all kinds of straight draws/gutshots, overcards/pairs which picked up a flush draw and all other hands he at times does not want to get rid of (read: A-high and overcards).

Call, he can have a lot of missed oesd and gutters, second and bottom pair type hands that he is trying to avoid having to face a river bet with, or some fish logic or other

If he checked you can probably shove for value