Villain is 18/10/1. I almost checked the river, but I wasn't folding for 2/3 of the pot, and I figured there's a good chance he checks through worse aces. Value bet or spew?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $97.40
Hero (UTG): $149.25
MP: $113.80
CO: $50.80
BTN: $100.00
SB: $112.00

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $3.50, MP calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($18.00) A 6 9 (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, MP calls $13, CO folds, BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($44.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $30, MP calls $30

River: ($104.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $70, MP calls $67.30 all in

When he calls the flop his range is AQ(8), AK(6), AJ(6), 66,99(5), maybe 8h7h(1). Less weight on sets and AK,AJ. They will sometimes play differently PF/flop.

Turn doesn't change anything, except that sets raise some % of time.

On river I think you'll get value out of AQ most of the time, AJ propably doesn't call 3 streets. So you have something like 8 combinations that will pay you off, and about 4 combination that you lose to. Should be +EV.

I don't think MP will have any aces here, except maybe AJ. He would have to call and set himself to be squeezed by the later players. He might have AQ if you have been pretty nitty, but most players won't get to the river this way with AQ.

You probably valuetowned yourself against 66/99, though it seems so weak to c/f this river.

Not sure what the ideal spot is.

nh

yeah, but you should start getting worried when he raises, though ^_^, the thing about the river is that if you check, it should be to c/f, because the villain is so passive and he checks behind with his worse aces most of the time and there are no real draws (well maybe 87, but it'd probably fold on the turn), and it's not for sure that you will be able to get away from your AK in the heat of the moment. so basically the only hands you beat are AQ-AJ(AT), but that's okay since the only sets in his range are 99/66, but in terms of combinatorics he is less likely to hold them. if you lose to a set - make a note, move on.

how big is your sample on the villan? do you think he calls an UTG raiser with suited connectors or AJ? i think most of the time 18/10 will have a pair in this spot, so he'll obviously have a set on the turn, but the pot is too big so there's nothing you can do.

I think its a bit ambitious but the board is perfect for your TPTK.

nh

this is fine 1v1, with 4 players to the flop your TPTK loses alot of value, but, the board comes nice for you so its hard to get away from

maybe ck/fold river