UTG ($102.50)
MP ($100)
Button ($60)
SB ($185)
Hero (BB) ($200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with AA
3 folds, SB bets $4, Hero raises to $16, SB calls $12

Flop: ($32) 10 10 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB raises to $70, Hero ???

villain is 30/15/1 vpip/pfr/ag over 73 hands

shove.

yep seems like he has too much in to fold x hand

Shove if he has a ten it's a cooler

wow, usually jus get it in, but 200bb deep makes this quite sick.
I think folding is not bad, we're deep so he could be calling kinda light, he's too passive to play overs+fd this way, against a standard and 100bb I'd include this hand but here I think it would be giving his passiveness too low credit, hands I can image are 77/JJ+/JTs/QTs/KTs/ATs

Board: Tc Th 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.719% 59.07% 01.65% 16960 472.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 39.281% 37.63% 01.65% 10805 472.50 { JJ+, 77, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs }

Adding ATo:

Board: Tc Th 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.434% 53.94% 01.49% 17089 472.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 44.566% 43.07% 01.49% 13646 472.50 { JJ+, 77, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo }

Adding JTo,KTo,QTo

Board: Tc Th 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.569% 37.61% 00.95% 18619 472.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 61.431% 60.48% 00.95% 29936 472.50 { JJ+, 77, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }


I think the last one would be giving him a little bit too wide range maybe...
But his passive and pretty loose, and also it's 200BB deep, I think once he gives the action on the flop he's holding nuts pretty often, this is a really hard spot, but I think in the long run there are better spots to get this in against passive fish when holding 200BB. I mean, if the flop would only have one of those two tens I'd get it in pretty quickly, but having two tens there scares me quite badly, since I think he's likely to call pre pretty wide here

i was scared too

also i start to think that chek behind here is ok, because most of the time he will fold when i bet this flop.

well it's a thought, but nope, this player will c/c flop and turn with any draw, so I think we should bet for value, as many players say "bet for value until your opponent is telling you otherwise", well here is a scenario where you're opponent could be telling you otherwise but still even tho pokerstove say it's pretty close and a call is not bad, I still think it's worth thinking it over being 200bb deep, pokerstove/numbers is not everything, unfortunately lol, but he's so passive that I really don't mind letting it go here at the same time I think that if I'd be in the spot I'd have so hard for letting it go since there'll be many times we'll see QQ/KK, sometimes these players likes to cold call these hands pre and get it in on flop, so it's a hard spot

i never fold in these spots against fish but somehow they always have it

however his c/r size here makes me thing that he doesn't have it. vs this fish i'd prob me more scared of c/minraise than this. ya gotta shove

he already told you he has you beat. why the hell are we continuing despite having a really good hand? Espec 200BB deep.

Grunch ....


Awesomely easy shove.