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NL100 JJ OOP versus aggressive player NL100 JJ OOP versus aggressive player

10-02-2010 , 05:02 PM
Appreciate some thoughts on this hand please. CO is playing a 29/23 game with a 12% 3-bet%. I have less than 100 hands on him but he's also taken a few hits on the table and I had the impression there could have been some tilt in his game.

IPoker Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $101.50
BTN: $97.73
SB: $97.50
BB: $126.68
Hero (UTG): $141.12
MP: $191.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $11, 3 folds, Hero calls $7.50

My image is probably a bit looser than is the norm at the table as I've been relentlessly iso-raising a loose player who's been doing a lot of calling and limping. So I think that despite my "strong" UTG open, he's raising a fairly wide range in position versus me. I decided to flat-call to keep his range as wide as possible on the flop.

Flop: ($23.50) 6 2 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $17.00, Hero calls $17

I like this flop as it doesn't IMO hit much of his range. I ponder a check-raise here - appreciate some thoughts on that? But again my thinking was that I need to keep his non-pair overcards in play. I'm not sure if my logic is sound here? He has a 77% C-bet and 100% c-bet(4) in a 3-bet pot. I note that he doesn't barrel the turn often though.


Turn: ($57.50) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $29.00 Now this is an interesting card as he does decide to barrel but at the same time I think his barreling range is wider that normal here with non-pair hands with one diamond. Possibly wishful thinking? Obviously his made flushes crush me and his over pairs with a diamond completely destroy me but are there enough draws to compensate? I stoved this range afterwards

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.023% 45.23% 00.80% 995 17.50 { JJ+, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh, AcQd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AsQd, AcJd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AsJd, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh, KcJd, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KsJd, QJo }
Hand 1: 53.977% 53.18% 00.80% 1170 17.50 { JdJh }

Thoughts? Do we fold/jam?
10-02-2010 , 07:02 PM
depends on how light he's 3 betting you in particular and your image. i think you should probably fold the turn, because the pot is so big that if you call there isn't much left behind on the river, and it probably isn't getting checked down.

if he has something like AK/AQ with a diamond he still has 14 outs against you, and you're behind his value range, plus if he's bluffing enough pre he can have a flush

i feel like his flop bet sizing is kind of a tell, people usually do this with either their big hands because they bet bigger with big hands, or with semi bluffs because they bet bigger with semi bluffs.

      
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