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NL100 - I want to c/r bluff this river sooo badly! NL100 - I want to c/r bluff this river sooo badly!

07-13-2009 , 04:12 AM
villain is 20/14/1.7 over 400ish hands
I haven't been very active at the table. Not much aggression and like 1 SD in the past 40 hands
no 3b pf cuz my image was such that I don't I would have gotten action from worse i don't think and i didn't know how he played pf too well

Looks to me like value w/ AJ, QJ, AA, KK, sometimes a bluff, sometimes a 7, but rarely a flush or a fh cuz it seems like he'd go for a bit bigger bet w/ those hands. Anybody try it?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $98.55
SB: $144.15
Hero (BB): $114.80
UTG: $250.00
MP: $100.00
CO: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 7 5 J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8

River: ($33.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $9, Hero is itchy...

Last edited by vhuntd; 07-13-2009 at 04:21 AM.
07-13-2009 , 04:23 AM
Yes it seems like a good spot. ~45 maybe?
07-13-2009 , 04:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vhuntd
Looks to me like value w/ AJ, QJ, AA, KK, sometimes a bluff, sometimes a 7, but rarely a flush or a fh cuz it seems like he'd go for a bit bigger bet w/ those hands. Anybody try it?
i disagree with your range here. AA, KK, AJ will almost always bet more on the turn and i doubt they are folding to a raise here. if your betting its to move him off JT, KJ ish hands
07-13-2009 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathdice
i disagree with your range here. AA, KK, AJ will almost always bet more on the turn and i doubt they are folding to a raise here. if your betting its to move him off JT, KJ ish hands
i agree its unlikely that he has AA KK AJ on turn but i think if he somehow does have them he is folding to c/r river for sure

having said that
i still think thats like not in his range and his range should be QJ/boats/flushes

QJ would be a thin vbet
and boats/flushes are trying to get you to c/r a weaker flush/bluff and then he can stack you
07-13-2009 , 04:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
and boats/flushes are trying to get you to c/r a weaker flush/bluff and then he can stack you
Wow really? People rarely do that @ 100nl and he has no reason to believe i'd go for that.
07-13-2009 , 04:54 AM
Its not very likely he is trying to make you c/r river as a bluff.
07-13-2009 , 05:48 AM
he prolly knows your range is a weak one pair hand or flushes/boats

of that range he can bet small for your one pair hands to pay off or your flushes not content to just call his small bet and decide to c/r for value then he can shove his nut flush/boat hands

i just dont think its worth c/ring this river as bluff
id call and take note
07-13-2009 , 07:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
he prolly knows your range is a weak one pair hand or flushes/boats

of that range he can bet small for your one pair hands to pay off or your flushes not content to just call his small bet and decide to c/r for value then he can shove his nut flush/boat hands

i just dont think its worth c/ring this river as bluff
id call and take note
This doesn't make much sense. It seems like you're suggesting that his range is basically nuts plus occasionally QJ. So you're saying that he always has the top of his range so his small bet is meant to either get a call from the bottom of my range (which he beats) or a c/r from the top of it (which he beats).

That's not true at all. He can easily have alot of one pair hands here that he's betting small for value while it looks like my range is weak (both on the turn and on the river). My hand distribution will change considerably once I c/r the river and he'll end up eliminating alot of my one pair hands that he was trying to get value from.

But, even if what you're suggesting is true, why would you suggest call? You've already said that his entire river betting range beats me.

IMO, call is the worst option on the river, he's pretty much never bluffing and he's never value betting worse.
07-13-2009 , 08:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vhuntd
This doesn't make much sense. It seems like you're suggesting that his range is basically nuts plus occasionally QJ. So you're saying that he always has the top of his range so his small bet is meant to either get a call from the bottom of my range (which he beats) or a c/r from the top of it (which he beats).

That's not true at all. He can easily have alot of one pair hands here that he's betting small for value while it looks like my range is weak (both on the turn and on the river). My hand distribution will change considerably once I c/r the river and he'll end up eliminating alot of my one pair hands that he was trying to get value from.

But, even if what you're suggesting is true, why would you suggest call? You've already said that his entire river betting range beats me.

IMO, call is the worst option on the river, he's pretty much never bluffing and he's never value betting worse.
i call because pot is big relative to his bet size and i want to call for information and see what he has as i have no reads on this player on what he is doing

what bets 8 on the turn? put yourself into villains shoes. it does not make sense to bet AJ+ that small on turn so i believe his betsizing polarises his range to nut hands or air/weakly made hands

and when he bets the river again after flush hits it weighs his range more to the nut hands because you are more likely to have the flush than him. those hands are obv not folding to your c/r and his air/weakly made hands are folding anyway

so before you c/r river as bluff you should be asking yourself how much of his river range is the air/weakly made hands as opposed to the nut hands and of that range how much of it is a weakly made hand that has you beat

which is why i just call to beat his air hands and if he has a nut hand i can call and take note of how he played it for future information. i think it's worth calling 9 dollars for a pot of 33.5.

i dont know it might just be my own twisted logic and villain just has KJ here
07-13-2009 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
i call because pot is big relative to his bet size and i want to call for information and see what he has as i have no reads on this player on what he is doing
Pretty likely that's he's going for some thin to moderately thin value. That's what most people would be doing with that bet sizing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
what bets 8 on the turn? put yourself into villains shoes. it does not make sense to bet AJ+ that small on turn so i believe his betsizing polarises his range to nut hands or air/weakly made hands
Makes more sense to bet Jx, QQ+ for 1/2-2/3 pot than to bet his nut hands like that which he'd want to build a bigger pot with. 1/2-2/3 on a pretty dry board will accomplish alot (bringing in worse hands for value {pocket pairs, worse Jx and some other junk he thinks I might call with}, protecting against a fd, saving money the rare times he gets c/raised and decides to fold). And he probably doesn't expect me to c/r like ever except with the 55,7x but he does expect me to come along with alot of stuff for that bet. Also, if he 1/2 pots turn and river - he's likely to think that will be more + ev against my range than betting larger on the turn and wanting to check back a scary river.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
and when he bets the river again after flush hits it weighs his range more to the nut hands because you are more likely to have the flush than him.
Not when he bets the river for that amount I don't think. There are basically no TAGs that are betting a huge hand on the river like that against a normal player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
so before you c/r river as bluff you should be asking yourself how much of his river range is the air/weakly made hands as opposed to the nut hands
I think it's heavily weighted towards 2 pr hands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thatssosick
and of that range how much of it is a weakly made hand that has you beat
like all of it - he's not betting 99 here
07-13-2009 , 08:36 AM
this works more often than most think it does.
07-13-2009 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vhuntd
Pretty likely that's he's going for some thin to moderately thin value. That's what most people would be doing with that bet sizing.



Makes more sense to bet Jx, QQ+ for 1/2-2/3 pot than to bet his nut hands like that which he'd want to build a bigger pot with. 1/2-2/3 on a pretty dry board will accomplish alot (bringing in worse hands for value {pocket pairs, worse Jx and some other junk he thinks I might call with}, protecting against a fd, saving money the rare times he gets c/raised and decides to fold). And he probably doesn't expect me to c/r like ever except with the 55,7x but he does expect me to come along with alot of stuff for that bet. Also, if he 1/2 pots turn and river - he's likely to think that will be more + ev against my range than betting larger on the turn and wanting to check back a scary river.



Not when he bets the river for that amount I don't think. There are basically no TAGs that are betting a huge hand on the river like that against a normal player.


I think it's heavily weighted towards 2 pr hands.



like all of it - he's not betting 99 here
the turn and river bets are not half pot bets. i belive if he was betting half pot on turn and river going for a c/r seems good because its more like hes going for thin value

i have this weird tendency to think villains dont valuebet this small so when they do its to induce bluffs or bluff cheap.

maybe the TAG's youre playing dont do this but betting small to induce is definitely my arsenal and a lot of the players i play against

      
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