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nl100 flop set get raised on riv nl100 flop set get raised on riv

04-24-2011 , 09:47 PM
BB is a 19/16 reg that I have 6k hands on and he only has 23% aggression on the river. I mean, I guess folding the river is good here because the next worst hand to mine is KJ and he never shoves with that. But how do you fold when you finally hit set and are just praying to get all the money in? Is it even possible to fold a set getting 3/1?

Merge $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1288563
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $168.44
CO: $58.92
BTN: $115.81
Hero (SB): $99.86
BB: $100.00
UTG: $45.02

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with 3 3
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4.00) K 5 3 (4 players)
Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3, UTG calls $3, BTN folds

Turn: ($13.00) 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $11.75, BB calls $11.75, UTG calls $11.75

River: ($48.25) J (3 players)
Hero bets $32.16, BB raises to $84.25, UTG folds, Hero sees that he has a set and clicks call
04-24-2011 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
KJ and he never shoves with that.
I don't think this is necessarily true. He doesn't shove w/ 100% frequency but it's definitely a non-zero % of the time.

Board: Kc 5h 3d 6h Jh

Hand 0: { 33 }
Hand 1: { 66-55, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KJs, KhTh, KJo }

PM me who it was if you want, but this is probably going to be a sigh-call against most non uber-nits.
04-24-2011 , 10:17 PM
Would probably fold, given the backdoor flush hit and it was multiway on the river and given his stats.
04-24-2011 , 10:18 PM
God I'm bad at reading HH's. Didn't realize it was a limped and multi-way pot. I'd fold for sure.
04-24-2011 , 10:50 PM
I don't think most regs would shove a worse hand than 33 on this river, and it doesn't really make sense for him to have air or a made hand that he's turning into a bluff, especially since this a limped pot. I think that this is a fold, though I would probably talk myself info a call in the heat of the moment.
04-24-2011 , 11:59 PM
? looks like you answered your own question? you can't fold a set getting 3:1 if you're good 25% of time or more. when you're good less than that, click fold button unless you hate money

you are obviously not good more than 25% here vs a reg

fwiw, i think most regs will iso KJ

i think you'll see Kxhh pretty often here

      
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