This was a interesting hand that came up from my session today.
For some reason at the time i had him marked as a good reg (looked him up later was a decent loser)
He plays 31/24 over large sample
66% flop c-bet, 59% turn barrell 45% WWSF
The BB in the hand was a fish.

In this spot I think that he will feel my range will be AK,AQ,AJs,ATs,KQ,JTs, and like QJdd, if my range is this strong does it make sense for him to bomb the turn with like KQ, AJ type hands ? (not imo).. should i be making a nitty fold here, and if I call what should my plan be on different rivers ?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($203.89)
CO ($42.50)
alextrev1111 (BTN) ($112.94)
SB ($40)
BB ($80)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) alextrev1111 is BTN Q A
UTG raises to $3.50, 1 fold, alextrev1111 calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: Q A K ($11, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $8, alextrev1111 calls $8, BB folds

Turn: 5 ($27, 2 players)
UTG bets $22

Final Pot: $27

call down on a brick river

fold turn and sigh, but don't let him know you can fold AQ here or you're gonna get raped

Assuming an EP open of ~20%

Board: Qc Ad Kd 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.037% 64.77% 07.26% 798 89.50 { QQ+, 55, AQs+, A5s, QdJd, QdTd, JTs, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 27.963% 20.70% 07.26% 255 89.50 { AsQh }


If he's bad he might bet KQ/AJ/AT, and our equity raises to 42%.

This is a fold, unless you have reasons to believe he might be barreling air on high frequency. But as previous poster pointed out, if you let him know you fold AQ here, you'll get exploited hardcore, despite it being the correct play.

raise flop.passive play call.call.LOL

clear bet with KQ with his image or i am bad?

KQ is on very bad shape against Hero's range.

I call turn, but prob fold river if he bombs.

^+1

so against hero range you are c/f with KQ in this spot? seems bit nitty...

'In this spot I think that he will feel my range will be AK,AQ,AJs,ATs,KQ,JTs, and like QJdd,' does your range not include a few more SC type hands?

i'd call turn and fold river, cant imagine he triple barrel bluffs this board but I do think he'd bet KQ on turn, hell i would, why wouldn't you bet KQ there?

yeah yeah, i think you're right

I am never folding turn. I will always fold river if he bets again though.

can u tell me why with ranges inc etc, simple answers like "call turn" or "fold" are just stupid and theres no reason to even post if thats gonna be your answer

because his 3barrel range is really strong and he's not likely to vbet worse if he gives you credit for being decent. And it's really hard for him to get to the river with pure air so he can't be bluffing often either. On turn he can still easily vbet AJ, KQ, AQ, A5s (?) or semibluff with something like QJdd which is one of the very few draws he can have here

^^^^ all very basic stuff that i assumed didn't need to be pointed out.

okay well if its very basic, then dont comment obv

Either fold turn or call/call, only reason you call turn is because you think he can be bluffing with JJ TT QJ type hands and he is not going to give up on the river with them.

my bad