Villain is a bad reg, chewing rakeback I guess, 24/12/5% 3bet, 1.0 4betrange, he only folds to 3bets 31% of the time.

In 3betpots he folds to Cbets 38% of the time and he raises them 19% of the time. This is over a huge sample (36k hands).

The flop hits his range smack on imo, but what to do?


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($102)
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($97)
CO ($117)
BTN ($53.60)

Dealt to Hero A A

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, fold, fold, Hero raises to $11, fold, UTG+1 calls $8

FLOP ($23) 9 J Q

Hero bets $14, UTG+1 raises to $86 (AI), Hero ??? (~$75 to call)



Maybe this is just a stove question. Stuff we beat is KK if he dediced not to 4bet that, we're ahead against some draws, but then I feel there are a lot of sets in his range imo when he has such a small 4bet%. I think most people will play their sets fast on a board like this too, especially OOP.

What I'm thinking though that might advocate a call is that he obviously doesn't like to fold to 3bets and he likes to stick around in them when he gets there. We also have the A backdraw, but that also makes his draws a little less likely.

How bad do you think b/f is here, honestly?

**** <-- badness stars

What's bad?

I've only just done this with gut feeling before, but given this range it's a quite clear call. Feel free to berate me if I've done some errors, I only just started messing around with pokerstove.


Board: 9h Jh Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.497% 50.98% 00.52% 35329 358.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 48.503% 47.99% 00.52% 33254 358.50 { KK-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, AQo, KQo, QTo+, JTo }



Maybe I'm too generous with his range though.

My gut feeling just tells me I'm way behind so often when I click call and slightly ahead not as often.

You are about 50/50 vs his range...So many draws etc...
Sure there are sets in his range, but I'd still call

Easy call, he can have a bunch of draws, KQ/AQ/QTdd and the likes, nh. b/f sucks, cr could be an option with sufficient reads.

Yeah okay agreed, even c/f is probably even better than b/f here.

I just hate pressing call in this spot so much.

I think that's because you learn from experience that you're losing pretty often in this spot when you're calling. Which you are. However we have enough equity to profitably call it off and we have a lot of suckout potential vs hands like QJ. It would be a tougher spot with KQ or AQ.