Villain was 18/15/3.4 over 550 hands. I had seen him spewing a few times, for instance he called a 4bet OOP with A6s and stacked off on a 965cc flop. I think I recall him 4b bluffing me once on this table too.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $233.00
BTN: $204.00
SB: $383.60
Hero (BB): $426.85
UTG: $96.15

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with J J
3 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB raises to $54, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($108.00) 9 8 7 (2 players)
SB bets $108

Shove it in or call and shove safe turns?

Or even fold at some point?

weird thread i can't see any reason why this is not a cleaaaaaar shove

I don't think this is by any means a crystal clear shove. I think you can call flop and re-eval turn. still not fist pump calling shove on a safe turn though. really curious to see other comments.

oh, who is villain?

Woaha? Clear shove? I'd probably fold this. Against any q+ club you're flipping and he def has a overpair here alot which may hold a club. And obviously he's never folding AK with any club then take sets, possible flushes straight into consideration and you're at best flipping in this situation, at best so I say pretty clear fold.

Btw to see this as a clear shove is just wrong. Any turn card is just going to have us second guessing, even if it is a club we have no freakin idea where we stand.

with given reads this is an easy shove

that is exactly the reason we shove

maybe stove it before you post

vs your range:

Board: 7c 8c 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.421% 55.72% 00.70% 24824 311.50 { QQ+, 99-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, QJs, 98s, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, QcJd, QcJs }
Hand 1: 43.579% 42.88% 00.70% 19103 311.50 { JcJd }

so even with 0 FE pot odds make this an easy shove

his pot bet prob means you are flipping but id jam it in and hit the 10c and laugh at his A high flush.

why is QJs in that range kaby?

Oh yea I forgot to mention I was being quite active on this table, 3betting a fair amount, esp in position, but not showing down crap often at all.

Villain's SN was "seidelli", some German dude.

If it affects anything at all he had just been berated on the chat and was down quite a bit for the session.

You need to discuss the gameflow.

My reasoning is: Players who becomes caught 4bet bluffing, dont 4bet bluff again. So i think his range is AK, QQ+.

Is it really profitable to think villain plays consequently in this spot, and not decide if he changes gear?


Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.729% 52.00% 00.73% 17502 246.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 47.271% 46.54% 00.73% 15665 246.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


I think his callingrange if we push is:

Board: 9c 8c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.147% 39.44% 00.71% 9762 174.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 59.853% 59.15% 00.71% 14639 174.50 { QQ+, AcKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc }


We have (2,6-1,9)/2,6 = 27% FE

EV is +$41,1

This was maybe the tightest range, but was still +EV. This means that pushing is clearly +EV.

brain fart should be JTs