Villain in the hand seems to be a tight tag so far and really hasnt done much out of the ordinary in the 150 hands ive played with him. 3 betting is certainly an option preflop but i opted not to as i had no reads on the opener at all. (note the opener and the main villain postflop are two different people) river feels gross. what u guys think about the hand?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($112)
BB ($34.85)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($90.60)
CO ($158)
BTN ($115)

Dealt to Hero 9 9

fold, fold, CO raises to $2, BTN calls $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1

FLOP ($8) Q 9 J

Hero bets $7, BB folds, CO folds, BTN calls $7

TURN ($22) Q 9 J 2

Hero bets $16, BTN calls $16

RIVER ($54) Q 9 J 2 7

Hero bets $38, BTN raises to $90.40 (AI)

Sick spot his calling range on the BTN is wide. If you think he can play anything but KT or T8 this way then call. Hes range becomes more narrow every street. Im not sure, its seems that if he had QQ/JJ he would have prol 3bet pf. He obv wants to get it in. Im going to have to fold this im not sure what we are beating besides QJ/KQ and a bluff. If he is extremely spewey and aggro then call but generally i think im leaning more towards a fold.

+1

fold. unless you think he can turn a jack into a bluff here..
no reads so fold

are you serious. Snap it off. Such an easy spot to bluff. Your getting good odds to call and he is doing this with enough of his range along with a whole bunch of air. If your folding that here I think you are playing 2 weak! u only need to be right approx 6/17 to make money.

Caveat - if he is a complete rock clearly this changes but if he is fairly standard tag just instasnap - the fact he is a TAG means he can still be agro and get credit for it - u have hardly any hands, a small sample and all the stats u generally look at concentrate on pre flop...he could take this line a lot. Seen this creaping in mainly at 2/4 and 3/6 recently a lot!

what other hands rather than 8T,KT is he doing this for value with? He has to raise flop/trn with these hands. Call.

He has the nut straight on a rainbow flop against one opponent, why would he raise the flop does villain always have a set? I just dont think that with the line villain has taken its going to be profitable in the long run to call these overbets off on the river. Are we forgetting that villain must be putting hero on a hand also? And he doesn't seem to be concerned one bit about it? I would like to hear more opinions on this hand. I think again that it is really specific to who and how villains plays specifically. If he will stack off and over bet river with weaker holdings and is very aggro than i agree with the call but against someone who is generally unknown who calls every street then raises the river AI, im a little more skeptical. I would like to hear the results only because i feel that this line is only taken when villain has a strong hand. I guess we can also assume that since we have no history on villain that he doesn't really have any on us which makes a large bluff here unlikely since villain doesn't know how we play to begin with.

Feels like a fold since there is no history. You could have bet a bit smaller on the river, like 32$ or so imo. If you knew anything about each other's playing style I could talk myself into calling this, but it's kinda hard to believe that he wouldn't have the nuts here 2/3 or more often.

I agree that this is a play you'd see as a bluff at 2/4 and 3/6, but I don't think too many people are shoving it in here at 100NL as a bluff. Hero's line is very strong and he does NOT appear to be folding at any point from villain's perspective, so I think the only times we're good here is when villain just doesn't understand and thinks his 2 pair is the nuts so he shoves it in. Unless you have a read that villain way overvalues top/2pr, this is a fold IMO.

i dont know the only hand I can't put him on is K10
tough spot feels like a fold but it's only like 42 into a 180 pot

Folding is too thin.

anyone like a c/c on the river to induce bluffs and allow villain to value town himself?

If he's shoving QJ you have to snap.

def not, he's checking Qx behind too often.

as played really meh spot, I doubt he's even shoving QJ for value when u took pretty ridic strong line, he has to be worried u having KT/8T aswell. good fold if you can make it I think.

ps. bet more on turn