Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $100.00
CO: $103.00
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $44.85
BB: $673.05
UTG: $141.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 2 A
1 fold, MP raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, MP calls $6

Flop: ($19.50) 8 6 Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $12, MP calls $12

Turn: ($43.50) 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($43.50) K (2 players)

Villain is 19/16/2.8 over 110 hands with a 50% f3bet (he called once and folded once). We have about $79 behind, and are looking to get him to fold 99-JJ and AQ. Does anyone like an overbet, since he almost never has AK+ and an overbet may make him fold his entire range?

Did villian check the river? I feel like I'd rather have gone for a 2nd barrel on the turn and then shoving the river because he basically has to fold his entire range unless he's slowplaying you or there's history with triple barreling.

Don't know if you are getting a lot more folds from a $30 bet compared to a $50-60 bet on the river though if he's set on calling. $60 bet just looks like wtf?

Yeah I messed this up, villain checked river. Doesn't our hand look a lot like AK if we bet big on river? So you prefer 30-40 range bet?

Yea if you're going to be trying to barrel him off 99-JJ and AQ (and could include KQss) then you probably should be barreling the turn. On the river your range is pretty much Bluff or AK. But villian might think about that you might just checkback AK on the flop? So your line doesn't make all much that sense.

Obv depends on villian skill level and hero call tendencies but I think I'd just check it down here and show that I'm a moron with A2o and everyone at the table will be like omfg this guy is crazy, he's bluffing everytime. . That image is worth more than what you've already put into this pot.

betting turn is bad

if you look like a nit shove river

A) People aren't adjusting nearly as much as you seem to think in SSNL games. Of course if you keep pounding on a guy with 3bets or whatever he's eventually gonna adjust, but the "value" of showing this one hand down in terms of increased value you can get in the future is pretty small.

B) You actually look like more of a moron to anyone who is really paying attention when you don't bet the nut best river card and you have no SD value.

C) This isn't going to look like a insane nutso crazy bluff to anyone.

If he looks like a nit isn't that an even better reason to barrel the turn then shove river..? A king is a barrel card and looks bluffy.

Regarding A) I disagree. I've made bluffs before where for the next hour or two people just never give me credit. This is more pertaining to bluffing the A2o on the river though and THEN getting called and showing A2. Showing you can cbet the flop is obv worth nothing yes. agree agree

he's calling the turn 80% of the time with the hands you want to fold, and you need a miracle river card or you are screwed. which is why pre is kind of bad

30 is good

26 is probably good too since we are trying to fold out 99-JJ, and not AQ/KQ

shove is idiotic

i don't much like betting turn but it is probably not a bad option since his range will be mostly 99-JJ/AQ and 99-JJ prob won't be happy to c/c again and face possible river bet

AQ/KQ is never folding imo, people at 100NL mostly think this way

Flop
ZOMG Vbet
Turn
crai
River
That's an awful card ... check
Hero bets pot/close to pot/shoves
WTF screw you. I call.

And if you're trying to fold 99-JJ it should be 3 barrels and this card just helps you get it across.( When he flats your 3b and checks turn I think this is what a lot of his range is.)

people for sure fold JJ even if you check the turn, they'll just put you on AK
they ALWAYS put you on AK

preflop is pretty atrocious unless you're dealing with someone that folds 70%+ over a large sample (and even then, meh)

if they fold 70% you make money with two uno cards here

Meh If I'm 3b bluffing I prefer to do it with Ax and Kx(which we normally don't call with) rather than some hand that has value or is a complete bluff for a bunch of reasons.

There are about 30% of hands that are better 3bet bluffing hands than A2o (such as A8o-ATo, A2s-A9s, any Kxs, etc). So unless you want to be 3betting this MP open 30+% of the time, this shouldn't be 3bet.

It doesn't matter what your Ax or Kx is(as long as it has no calling value vs MPs open), it's as a bluff because you have card removal and can double or triple barrel a lot of boards. A2 and A4 makes like no difference vs MPs opening range. I agree I never 3b bluff in this spot because it seems bad but what I'm saying is I rather do it with A2o rather than QJs or K9s.

Yeah, this is a good hand to get hung up on preflop.

Although card removal in and of itself is not a good reason to 3b here w/o some very specific reads... this situation is a lot different than 4b bluffing w Ax/Kx.

River overbet jam should only get called by KQ at 100NL, unless opponent is very good or very bad

Regarding Kxs, can you explain why this is a better hand to 3bet than A2o? Is it because he has more Ax that dominate A2o in his flatting range than Kx that dominate K2s, or because we flop more equity pieces we can stay aggressive with? I thought high-card value was generally more important in 3bet pots than suitedness?

I'm slightly confused as to why it's bad if it's a better 3bet w/A2o than w/K9s. Is it bad because we shouldn't do it vs. this type of villain?

Its not. Blockers are much less important for 3betting than 4betting. QJs if you won't flat with it is a far superior hand to 3bet bluff with, as is k9s as is Q4s imo

3bing K9s is far far superior, it plays better post-flop when you're called
flopping a flush draw just makes it so much easier to play your hand
when you flop a 9 you also beat someone's pp since it's pretty standard to flat 66,77,88 type hands to 3bs IP, but flopping a deuce is semi-worthless since you only beat AQ and still lose to pps

I think betting half pot is okay, to let him fold all his hands worse then Qx, don't think he'll fold Qx a lot here.
If you bet half pot, it really looks like a valuebet..